Last year at this time, Guy Gadowsky and the men’s ice hockey team were relaxing in Hobey Baker Rink, practicing and waiting to see who their ECAC quarterfinal opponent would be. That time – and that season as a whole – seems long ago. As the Tigers prepare to host the Harvard Crimson this weekend, they have to look back on the past few months as a great disappointmet – yet also notice reasons for optimism.
The 2009-2010 Tigers (12-14-3, 8-12-2 ECAC), perhaps feeling the aftershocks of the most devastating loss in program history to Minnesota-Duluth in the first round of the NCAAs, slipped to 8th place in the league, and were fortunate to even achieve the goal of hosting a playoff series. They needed a win against Brown combined with a Crimson loss at St. Lawrence to move the series from Cambridge to Princeton. Injuries, players playing out of position, inexperience, and just general inconsistent play all combined to make the Tigers a much weaker force in conference play than they were the past two years. Star goaltender Zane Kalemba, a Hobey Baker finalist last season, failed to even make third-team All-ECAC honors. Only one player – defenseman Taylor Fedun – was honored by the league, earning a spot on the second-team conference roster.
But these Tigers won’t have that negative mindset going into this weekend. Regardless of future outcomes, they are the favorites in this series and know it – not that they are feeling arrogant by any means, but simply confident. Their two games against Harvard (7-19-3, 7-12-3 ECAC) this season were a 3-3 tie at Hobey Baker Rink and a 2-1 victory in Boston. Injuries that have decimated the roster this season are less of a factor. It’s a new season now (as cliche as that sounds) and the Tigers are well aware that to receive a third straight NCAA tournament berth, they must win the ECAC crown. The first step in that path is a victory in the three-game series at Baker this weekend.
Let’s take a look at the statistics in the matchup, which show that the teams are actually quite similar in many respects. The third period has been the downfall of each, with Princeton being outscored by its opponents 38-27, and Harvard by an even larger margin, 45-25, so one team is going to have to break that trend, and whoever does so likely will be moving on. Both teams have struggled on special teams. Harvard scores on 17.6% of their power plays, and gives up goals on 21.1% of the opposition’s man advantages. Princeton’s special teams are prone to more goal-scoring, but they still run a deficit of 20% conversion rate on their power plays to a 24% rate for their opponents. Both teams have a lower shooting percentage than their opponents.
Princeton has three distinct advantages: faceoffs, number of shots, and penalties. Princeton wins 50.6% of its faceoffs, not an outstanding number, but compared to Harvard’s miserable 45.6%, it’s much better. Time of possession – and specifically time in the offensive zone – will be key for both teams, because neither team has – based on the stats from this year, though Kalemba comes in with the best netminder reputation – a goalie who consistently will stand on his head and turn away shot after shot during sustained offensive pressure by the other team. Having watched the Tigers this season, one of their downfalls has been the inability to clear the puck from the defensive zone, even at even strength, and from seeing one game against the Crimson, the same assessment applies to them. The faceoffs are an obvious way for a team to establish possession, and Princeton would seem to have the upper hand, but they need to control the puck in the offensive zone to capitalize on this advantage.
Additionally, Princeton takes many more shots than its opponents, while the opposite is true for Harvard. Princeton outshoots its opponents by 5 shots per game, 36-31, whereas Harvard is outshot 35-29. Princeton’s statistic may be a little deceptive, given that they often struggle to generate a continuous offensive possession and sometimes settle for low-quality shots, but the goaltending for Harvard has not been top-notch this year, and sometimes throwing the puck at the net and seeing what happens can make or break a game. Harvard will have to work hard to send a barrage of shots Kalemba’s way, but assuming Princeton can do the same to the Crimson goaltender, they should be in decent shape. Speaking of goaltenders, who will start for Harvard? It’s unclear. Kyle Richter and Ryan Carroll have platooned all year; Carroll started last Friday in a 2-1 OT loss to Clarkson, and Richter started on Saturday in St. Lawrence, but was relieved by Carroll after allowing three goals. The play from last weekend might seem to give the edge to Carroll, but head coach Ted Donato will likely go with the hot hand.
The last advantage held by Princeton is in penalties. Harvard has taken 158 minors and their opponents have only taken 142, whereas Princeton has taken fewer than its opponents, 152-154. Because both teams have weak special teams, power plays become crucial – not only because they allow for goal-scoring chances, but because they keep the other team out of a 5 on 5 situation in which both teams are better.
So what are 3 keys to the game for each team?
Harvard:
- Get Louis Leblanc going: there’s a reason he’s so highly touted, and why he leads Harvard in goals and points. Keep him on the ice as long as possible.
- Find a rhythm in goal: neither Richter nor Carroll have dominated this season, but one of them is going to have to step up and be the guy. A goaltender rotation is generally ineffective in playoff hockey, where a hot goalie can carry a team a long way. One of the two is going to have to step up.
- Have great puck control in the offensive zone: Princeton has trouble clearing the puck, even during 5 on 5 situations. The longer possession stays at Princeton’s end, the more vulnerable the defense becomes to a fluke deflection or a juicy rebound. Get the puck out to the point and be patient.
Princeton:
- Zane Kalemba plays like Zane Kalemba can: he was fantastic in last year’s ECAC tournament, even in the loss to Cornell in the semifinals (in fact, I think that was his best game). He’s been shakier this year, but he’s displayed some amazing performances, including the second game against Harvard, a 2-1 Princeton victory. It seems obvious to say, but he needs to be better if Princeton wants to beat Harvard, much less get to Albany for the ECAC semis.
- Senior leadership: forwards Dan Bartlett and Mark Magnowski are the leading point-getters on this Tiger squad. Jody Pederson and Brad Schroeder anchor the blue line, and of course Kalemba stars in net. This is certain to be their last weekend at Baker Rink, so expect them to have a little extra motivation.
- Get the first goal: Princeton outscores its opponents 27-16 in the 1st period, and those goals are sorely needed given the 3rd period letdowns that have plagued the Tigers all season long. Applying pressure early, rattling the goaltender – and whether its Richter or Carroll, they’ll have to play well to stay on the ice, which could cause some nerves – and jumping out to that early lead will force Harvard to lead the 3rd period onslaught, something they are unaccustomed to doing as evidenced by their negative goal differential in the 3rd.
The games are at 7 PM on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday (if necessary) so come on out to Hobey Baker Rink if you’re in the area and get your tickets before they sell out.
Prediction: Tigers in 3
Looks like I got this one wrong.