NFL Picks: Week 3
Two weeks of NFL play are in the books, and could it be that the biggest story of the young season is the revelation that is the 2011 Detroit Lions? The Lions certainly were a popular pick as a sleeper for the playoffs, with a young core led by superstar WR Calvin Johnson (aka Megatron), talented but relatively unproven QB Matthew Stafford, and a defensive stud in DT Ndamukong Suh. Now the Lions are 2-0, including a 48-3 shellacking of the Kansas City Chiefs. At first, I was wary of this Lions team because of their lack of experience, but now the only thing that might stop them is the difficult NFC North. Their division already has the Super Bowl champion and the Chicago Bears, who had the NFC’s best record a year ago. This week the Lions will have their first division game of the year, facing Minnesota on the road. These are the kinds of tests that playoff teams pass. On to the picks! Last week: 9 wins – 6 losses – 1 push. Season record: 19-12-1
New England Patriots (-7.5) at Buffalo Bills: The Bills are in a similar boat to the Detroit Lions. A surprise 2-0 start has some people believing in Buffalo, but their difficult division might be too much to overcome. Stacked with New England and the New York Jets, Buffalo is looking to replace the AFC East power atop the division. This is where it all starts for them. The Bills have scored 41 and 38 points in their first two weeks, but I have a feeling that the Patriots will find a way to score just a few more. The problem is that the Patriots’ offense is the NFL equivalent of the Terminator. They don’t feel pity, they don’t feel remorse, and they absolutely will not stop until you are dead…or in this case, until they win by double digits.
San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5): When in doubt, I usually go with the quarterback I can trust to deliver. What about when you are deathly afraid to wager on either one? One side has a rookie starting only his third game ever, Andy Dalton for the Bengals. And the Niners have Alex Smith, who has never proven to be worth the number one draft pick he was in 2005. San Francisco hasn’t been able to move the ball in their first two games, averaging a little more than 200 total yards per game. With that in mind, I’ll take Cincy and hope they run the ball rather than rely on the rookie’s arm.
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-2.5): The Miami Dolphins have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, and it has been exposed in its first two contests. Tom Brady threw for 517 yards on Monday Night Football in Week 1, and while I don’t expect Browns QB Colt McCoy to come anywhere near that, I like the Browns to come away with the win at the Dog Pound.
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-6.5): When I first looked at this line, I was surprised that Tennessee was favored by nearly a touchdown. It’s a little high for a team led by Matt Hasselbeck at QB, and a superstar RB in Chris Johnson who only has 77 yards in two games. But then I read Denver’s injury report. Without defensive sack specialist Elvis Dumervil and perhaps their best cornerback Champ Bailey, Denver’s pass defense will be very susceptible, even to the likes of Matt Hasselbeck. Look for Titans WR and emerging star Kenny Britt to have another big day. Britt already has 271 yards and 3 TDs in his first two games.
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Minnesota Vikings: Remember all those things I said in the opening paragraph. Yeah…all those reasons plus the fact that Donovan McNabb looks mediocre at best as Minnesota’s quarterback. I guess I’m buying into Detroit Lions for now, though I’ll wait to see how they perform against their tougher divisional foes, Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers.
Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints (-4): Look, I’m not getting sucked into the “This is finally the year that Houston makes the jump to contender!” I’ve heard that story for the past five years it seems. And yet the Texans have never made the playoffs. I will concede that the Texans ought to make the playoffs in the weak AFC South, considering Peyton Manning’s injury blows it wide open. But the Saints are a proven contender, and playing at the Superdome should not be overlooked. And New Orleans just rocked Chicago in the Big Easy. Give me the Saints by a touchdown.
New York Giants (+8.5) at Philadelphia Eagles: In the first two weeks, Michael Vick has showed why he’s worth 100 million dollars, and why I would take out a huge insurance policy on his health. Vick is small for a QB, which helps with his speed, but hurts with his ability to stay on the field. He’s fragile to say the least. Anyone who watched the vicious hit he took on Sunday Night Football can attest to that fact. Vick received a concussion (and ended up spitting up blood) after a sack where he collided with his own lineman. As for this game, the line is just a couple points too high for me to take Vick and the Eagles.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers (-3.5): My favorite (not actual) relative, Cam Newton, is tearing it up as a rookie QB. Newton is averaging 427 passing yards a game in his first two contests. He’s winless so far, but if his performances continue anywhere near the pace of his hot start, that will change on Sunday.
New York Jets (-3) at Oakland Raiders: I really don’t want the Jets to be good. Why do the Jets have to be legit? Don’t they know how much it pains me to pick them? Ugh. Fine. I’ll do it. Mark Sanchez better not make me regret this pick. Or I’ll never bet on the Jets again! (Until next week).
Baltimore Ravens (-5) at St. Louis Rams: Alright, in two weeks, I’ve bet against the Ravens one week and with them on the other. Of course, they won when I went against them, and played terribly when I picked them to beat the Titans last week. But here’s the problem: I’m not superstitious. And I refuse to be. I’m confident that my hometown team will knock the Rams down to 0-3, who will still have a decent shot at winning the NFC West.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-14.5): Is it possible that the 2011 Kansas City Chiefs will be the worst team of all time? I mean, in two games they have been outscored 89-10. A -79 point differential would be bad at the end of the season, but after two weeks it’s unprecedented. I see no reason why they cannot keep up their (pathetic) record-breaking pace.
Green Bay Packers (-4) at Chicago Bears: I’m looking down at my picks and it’s disturbing how many favorites I’m siding with. This is clearly not a good thing. This tempted me into picking the Bears, but then I remembered how I have no faith in the Bears and how the Saints’ dismantling of Chicago in Week 2 confirmed my doubts on this team repeating their NFC North title from a year ago. I’ll look elsewhere for a home underdog.
Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks: Oh look, I found another home underdog in the Seattle Seahawks. They fit the bill with their solid homefield advantage at the raucous Qwest Field. But with how bad the Seahawks have become with QB Tarvaris Jackson at the helm, Seattlites (Seattlers? Seattleans?) should just turn their focus on their MLS team, the Seattle Sounders. They would have a better chance of celebrating scores at those football matches.
Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Finally! I found an underdog (albeit a road one) that I feel confident can actually win. Atlanta completed a comeback on Sunday Night Football against a Vick-less Eagles team, but even before Vick’s departure, they looked much closer to the 14-2 team that won the NFC South and held the NFC-best record last season. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan outplays Tampa’s up-and-coming QB Josh Freeman in a battle of young guns.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) at Indianapolis Colts: I was debating whether the Indianapolis Colts would go 0-16 this year if Peyton Manning cannot return from his neck injury. So I looked up the Colts’ schedule for the rest of the way, and apparently they play the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 5. So that prediction goes out the window. But other than that one game, it was a foolproof idea. Needless to say, I’m not high on the Colts this week against a very solid Steelers team that just shut out the Seahawks.
Washington Redskins (+4.5) at Dallas Cowboys: In Week 1, I pegged the Redskins as being a semi-sleeper by claiming they were not the worst team in the NFC East despite the preseason odds against them. Their 2-0 start has me excited about that prediction, and a matchup with Dallas Cowboys who will presumably start an injured Tony Romo on Monday night. Romo may have punctured his lung in the previous game against San Francisco and returned to play the fourth quarter and overtime period in the Dallas comeback win. But normally, I like my QBs to have all their ribs and lungs intact before throwing them in live action again. I’ll take the Redskins in an upset.
WPRB NFL Pick ‘Em Contest
As a new feature of WPRB.com/sports, we will be regularly posting the picks of various members of WPRB and friends of WPRB for several football games each week. We will be updating the contestants’ records after each week, awarding a grand prize at the end of the season for the person with the most winners correctly chosen. The grand prize will be a shout-out on our weekly sports talk program TIMEOUT and all the bragging rights until next season. As of the start of Week 2, all records are 0-0. Please check out our newly updated section under the tab “WPRB Picks” at the top of the website. Feel free to play alongside our ‘experts.’ You’ll probably beat most of them. Good luck!
NFL Picks: Week 2
Week 1 of the 2011 NFL season saw several teams get off to a hot start. The Bills rocked the Chiefs by 34 points. The Ravens destroyed their bitter rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers, by the score of 35-7. The Texans jumped all over the Manning-less Colts, winning by 27 points. And that was just the early games. Well, yours truly joined those teams with a fantastic start to this year’s column, going 10-6 with my picks. Lets find out if I can continue that blistering pace, just as many NFL teams will look to do in Week 2. Last week: 10 wins – 6 losses.
Oakland Raiders (+4) at Buffalo Bills: Maybe this year is the one that the Bills finally make the jump to contender. At least that’s what 7 people in Buffalo believe. Since they are still stuck in the AFC East, I can’t see that happening with the Jets and Patriots as locks to win 9 games each, if not more. Last year, the Bills were the worst team defense against the run, and Oakland’s strength is its tandem rushing attack of Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. They racked up 190 yards in Week 1, and they will do much of the same on Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions (-8): Last week, I said that the Chiefs would have trouble returning to the playoffs with a harder schedule. I think that was a bit of an understatement. The Chiefs will have trouble winning games because they are not a very good team. In fact, they are pretty mediocre on a good day. On a bad day, they get shellacked by 34 points by the Bills. This Sunday will be another bad day. Losing defensive standout in safety Eric Berry for the season certainly won’t help matters for the folks in KC.
Baltimore Ravens (-6) at Tennessee Titans: I tried to convince myself that six points was too many points to lay on the Ravens, who benefitted from 7 turnovers from the Steelers last week. (That’s not a typo, seven!) There’s no way the Ravens will repeat that feat this week. But it’s also hard to imagine Matt Hasselbeck tearing up this Baltimore defense. And the Titans were particularly weak against the run last season and in Week 1, and the Ravens’ Ray Rice is among the top running backs in the league.
Cleveland Browns (-2) at Indianapolis Colts: Considering the Browns lost to the Bengals in Week 1, it’s odd that they are favored on the road in Week 2. But the Colts looked lost without number 18 under center. Without Manning, the Colts are a legitimate threat to go 1-15 or even 0-16. If the Colts can’t win this home game, they need to find the panic button immediately.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2) at Minnesota Vikings: I rode the Tampa Bay bandwagon into the ground with their home loss to the Detroit Lions. But I’m relying on the idea that the Lions might be a playoff team in hiding. Minnesota’s offense was rather pitiful against San Diego in Week 1, as QB Donovan McNabb threw for an astonishingly low 39 yards. While the Chargers are a very good team, nothing can excuse that kind of offensive performance.
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-6.5): Looking at Chicago’s Week 1 at a glance, and you might conclude that the Bears steamrolled a Falcons team that had the NFC’s best record a year ago. But the Falcons gained more first downs and squandered both their chances in the redzone, cashing in for zero points on two trips. The Saints moved the ball up and down the field against the defending champion Packers, gaining 477 totals yards on offense. In fact, New Orleans outgained Green Bay by nearly 80 yards. I doubt that the Saints will have any trouble moving the ball in the Superdome.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+9) at New York Jets: The big matchup in the Meadowlands on Sunday will be how Maurice Jones-Drew and the Jags’ rushing attack fares against the Jets’ stingy run defense. But the Jags’ style of pounding the ball on the ground will eat up clock and limit mistakes. Plus, the Jets’ reliance on Mark Sanchez to pass the ball after their running game was entirely ineffective against the Cowboys has me worried about their ability to cover this spread. I’m sure I’ll be eating my words at four o’clock on Sunday.
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14): The Steelers could not have played a worse game than they did in Week 1. That seven turnover performance (still not a typo) led to an embarrassing 35-7 defeat. I feel sorry that the Seahawks have the unfortunate task of facing an angry Steelers team with something to prove. Last week, they looked out of sorts. This Sunday, they will come out with an edge. I’d be afraid if I were Seattle QB Tarvaris Jackson. Very afraid.
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins (-3.5): Take this one to the bank. The Redskins were one of my favorite upset picks from last week, and they proved me right. Now they get the Cardinals, who also won in Week 1. But that was against the Carolina Panthers and I’m not impressed yet. I’m locked in on the Redskins surprising some people this season. The Cardinals’ shaky pass defense which allowed over 400 yards in the air last week will be their downfall yet again.
Green Bay Packers (-10) at Carolina Panthers: This one is really tough for me. I can’t believe I’m going to go against my guy Cam Newton. Even after that fantastic debut, I’m just afraid that the Packers will ramp up the pressure on the rookie QB. But maybe if he watches Green Bay’s QB Aaron Rodgers, he can learn a few things for the rest of the season.
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at San Francisco 49ers: Plain and simple, the Cowboys should be 1-0. Two costly fourth-quarter turnovers from QB Tony Romo changed a fourteen point lead into a three point loss. Such a performance only worsens Dallas fans’ criticisms of Romo’s anti-clutchness (it’s a word, go with it). But if the Cowboys can outplay the Jets, they should get the win comfortably over this 49ers team.
Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) at Denver Broncos: Yikes. Wow, I’m definitely not watching this game. Hmm. What to say? Uhh…Cincy will likely adopt a similar strategy as Oakland did in their victory over the Broncos with a run-first offense. The Broncos allowed 190 yards on the ground, and they may be without defensive standout Elvis Dumervil, so that number may not improve against a Bengals’ rushing attack that gained nearly 140 yards against Cleveland in Week 1. It’s tough to pick the Bengals with a rookie QB, but I simply can’t put faith in Denver’s porous run defense. And that’s enough reason for me.
Houston Texans (-3) at Miami Dolphins: It seems like every year, we ask the question: “Will this be the year the Texans finally break through with a winning record and playoff berth?” Well, lets ask that question again. And this year, it’s obviously their best chance to answer “Yes!” With the Manning-less Colts faltering, the AFC South is up for grabs and Houston seems poised to take the division. Games against sub-par competition like the Dolphins are must-wins for future playoff teams.
San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots (-7): If I were a Patriots fan, I’d be psyched about this upcoming season. I mean it might help you forget about the ongoing Red Sox collapse. The Patriots’ offense will not be stopped, so covering the spread means the Chargers will need to score probably 25-30 points. This can definitely happen. But then the Patriots will just go and score more.
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons have one of the best homefield advantages in all of the NFL, but the Eagles are the bandwagon choice to replace Atlanta atop the NFC hierarchy. After watching Michael Vick and Desean Jackson tear up the St. Louis Rams, I have a feeling that this Eagles team is made for dome games. In the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, the Eagles’ speed will have another chance to shine, this time in primetime of Sunday Night Football.
St. Louis Rams (+6.5) at New York Giants: By the end of the season, many football games turn out to be battle of attrition. Health is often a crucial element to successful playoff teams. Unfortunately for both these teams, the lineups have already been greatly affected by injuries. I’ve noted the missing players for the Giants in last week’s preview, but the Rams lost their starting RB Steven Jackson and key WR Danny Amendola in their Week 1 loss to the Eagles. In addition to their preseason troubles, the Giants lost leading receiver Hakeem Nicks in their Week 1 loss to the Redskins. I’m sorry for both these fanbases. It’s never fun to watch bad luck and injuries throw your team into disarray.
More picks to follow…
NFL Picks: Week 1
Welcome back everyone! It’s certainly great to be back for the start of football season. While the college football season got underway the previous weekend, the big boys get the spotlight for Week 1 of the NFL season. And like last year, I will be attempting to write up my picks week in and week out, hopefully choosing some winners along the way. Last year I managed 17 weeks of picks and ended a mere 7 games over .500. But it’s a clean slate and everyone is undefeated in 2011 (not including last year’s playoffs. Come on, you knew what I meant!). As always, this column does not condone gambling (unless you are winning, in which case it’s just making easy money), but we will be using point spreads. S0 let’s get down to business: “Are you ready for some football?” Last season: 129 wins – 122 losses – 5 pushes.
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-4.5): In the Thursday night kickoff for the NFL season, the past two Super Bowl winners will square off at Lambeau Field up in Wisconsin. It also pits two of the league’s best quarterbacks against each other, Drew Brees for the Saints and Aaron Rodgers for the Packers. Both these teams made the playoffs last year as wild cards, but the Packers were better than their 10-6 record, leading the league in point differential last season. And they will even get some players back who missed time due to injury, most notably TE Jermichael Finley. Finley will bolster the receiving corps of Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and James Jones, and he will provide Aaron Rodgers with yet another target and all-important reliable safety valve when plays breakdown or routes downfield are covered. Green Bay was one of the league’s youngest teams last year, and they return just about everyone, plus it’s the beginning of the season so they are at full strength unlike their playoff run a year ago. Shout out to my roommate Andy who provided me with this fantastic random stat: Reigning Super Bowl champions are 15-6 when facing the previous Super Bowl winner, and 7-0 since 1993. Watch out for the Cheeseheads.
Atlanta Falcons (-2) at Chicago Bears: Believe it or not, this is a matchup of the teams with the two best records in the NFC last year. I know, I completely forgot, too! The Bears and the Falcons were surprise division champs, but they stumbled in the playoffs, and both lost to eventual Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers. Frankly, I don’t think either team was as good as their record last year, and that’ll show this year. It’ll just be a little worse for the Bears than the Falcons.
Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) at Cleveland Browns: I’m hearing a decent amount of buzz surrounding the Cleveland Browns of all teams, as a potential sleeper. Maybe I’m just a Baltimore homer but I’m not buying it. The Browns are the better team in this matchup, but I will need proof that Colt McCoy can be a playoff-ready quarterback before I select the Browns as anything but a 6-10 team. Starting off on a good note against a bad Cincy team would be a step in the right direction.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5): Of all the AFC playoff teams a year ago, Kansas City was easily the weakest. They may also have the toughest time returning to the playoffs for a second consecutive year. Last season, they were helped with one of the league’s easiest schedules, which is not the case this year. They also share a division with a rejuvenated and healthy Chargers team that is a fairly consensus pick to win the AFC West. Despite my negativity, I like the Chiefs in their season opener, simply because they are playing the Bills…poor Bills.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at St. Louis Rams: The Eagles have weapons on all sides of the ball. Michael Vick. LaSean McCoy. DeSean Jackson. Nmandi Asomugha. Asante Samuel. This may be one of the fastest, most dynamic teams ever assembled. It certainly will be fun to watch, win or lose. Look, I’m by no means an Eagles fan, but I’ll be tuning in to their games throughout the year just to watch some of their playmakers. If this team can stay healthy (and with Mike Vick as their full-time QB, that’s a big IF), I like their chances to win the NFC East. And that’ll start with a win against the upstart Rams and Sam Bradford.
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5): The Detroit Lions have a lot of bandwagon potential with all of the talk surrounding this young team. Certainly, the Lions did win four straight games to finish the previous season, but I just don’t understand this line. Doesn’t anyone else remember the Bucs won 10 games last year? Normally home teams are favored by 3 points, so people think the Lions are the better team overall? I’ll believe it when I see it. For now, the Bucs still have the advantage.
Tennessee Titans (+1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars: I wrote off the Jags at the beginning of last season, and they proved me wrong with a very respectable 8-8 season. Well, here’s hoping they won’t let me down this time! The Jags will be terrible this year. I’m not afraid to predict it again. And I think anytime you can get points versus team that just released its starting quarterback in favor of Luke McCown, you take them. Ugh, Titans win an ugly one.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) at Baltimore Ravens: In my mind, there are two types of fans: overly optimistic homers and realistically pessimistic fans. I’ll tell you quite frankly, I’m in the second group. This is always one of the closest matchups, year in and year out, but the Ravens haven’t beaten Ben Roethlisberger in seven straight games. Yes, the Ravens were able to win games against Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch as Steelers QB, but that’s not quite the same as going up against Big Ben. Say what you will about Roethlisberger, but he wins football games. And he has Baltimore’s number.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-8.5): Talk about a game of unknowns. What will the Colts look like without Peyton Manning? Will we learn exactly how valuable he is to them? Remember, we haven’t seen the Colts play a single game without Manning since he was drafted in 1998. So having Kerry Collins start on Sunday will just be weird. My guess is that somehow, despite the accolades and awards, we still manage to underestimate the impact that Peyton Manning has on the Colts. No position in sports in more meaningful than quarterback and nobody plays it better than Manning. If Peyton doesn’t return soon, Indy fans will be in for a long season.
Carolina Panthers (+6.5) at Arizona Cardinals: I make no excuses for my bias in these picks. I’m a Ravens fan and I cloud my thoughts accordingly. Well, I root for Cam Newton. He shares my last name. And that’s enough reason for me. In reality, I’m not convinced any NFC West team should be favored by nearly a touchdown. This was the worst division in NFL history last year, and they should not be much better one season later.
Minnesota Vikings (+9) at San Diego Chargers: For some unknown reason, the month of September seems to be the Chargers’ bane. In each of the previous four seasons, San Diego has started 2-3 or worse, including a 2-5 mark a season ago. They still have Norv Turner as their coach, so there’s no reason to think anything has changed. As for Minnesota, you have to think that Donovan McNabb, even if he is in the twilight of his career, will give this team a better chance to win.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5): I can only imagine that this is game 1 of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. On the one side, we have the 49ers and their new head coach Jim Harbaugh, who coached the consensus top college QB at Stanford. On the other side of the football, we have a football team that is willingly starting Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback. And yet they both have a chance to win their division despite my misgivings. Welcome to the NFC West!
New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+2): It’s no secret that the New York Giants have been ravaged by injuries. They are missing more people than I can count. Defensive standout Osi Umenyiora will be out after knee surgery, and rookie CB Prince Amukamara will not be available either with a broken foot. No one really thinks the Redskins will be good, and I don’t either. But the Giants might be just as bad.
Dallas Cowboys (+6) at New York Jets: The New York Jets made headlines with their signing of WR Plaxico Burress upon his release from jail. But I’m not convinced that switching from Jericho Cotchery to Burress makes the Jets that much better. The Cowboys will begin their first full season under head coach Jason Garrett. Dallas finished the season with a 5-3 record after Garrett took over from Wade Phillips midway through last year. The Cowboys will continue their improvement into a full-fledged contender this season, and I just think 6 points is too big a margin.
New England Patriots (-7) at Miami Dolphins: There are some question marks surrounding the Patriots’ offensive line, and certainly they will be tested by a solid defensive front seven in Monday night’s game. The Dolphins’ linebacker corps includes All-Pro Cameron Wake who finished third in the NFL last season with 14 sacks. The problem for the Dolphins is that while they get pressure on the QB, they failed to force many turnovers off of that pressure, just 19 turnovers a year ago. Tonight’s game will not get any easier as they face a Patriots’ offense that set an NFL record with just 10 turnovers given up. And anytime you are relying on Chad Henne to outplay Tom Brady, you should probably rethink your strategy.
Oakland Raiders (+3) at Denver Broncos: Both these teams come into Monday’s game happy to be starting anew. A new season means clean slates for two new head coaches, John Fox for Denver and Hue Jackson for Oakland. Look for the Raiders to run the ball, and run it some more after that. The Raiders rushed for 156 yards per game, while the Broncos gave up nearly 155 yards per game. The 1-2 punch of Darren McFadden and Michael Bush will have a field day for the Raiders’ rushing attack. Last year, the Raiders swept the series, winning in Denver by the score of 59-14. This game won’t be nearly as one-sided, but the Raiders get the road win.