Princeton Hockey: Season Preview
With two games under their belt, the Tigers are poised for a difficult but potentially successful year. Last year, the Tigers finished 12-16-3, losing most of those games within their conference. This surprised many commentators, who originally predicted Princeton to finish in the top ten on the East Coast. Now, with many of their core seniors gone, Princeton faces an uphill battle.
I see this as an opportunity, though. Unlike last year, few pundits predict Princeton to have a record season. This takes the pressure off Princeton’s much younger team and allows them to focus on just playing hockey. This may sound unsubstantial, but I think the Tigers are leaner and hungrier this year. While they lack many of their old stars, several key players remain. Senior Mike Kramer returns after finishing second in goal scoring last year. Matt Arhontas, a fellow senior, is also returning after a career-high 18 point season (fourth on the team). Linemates Kevin Lohry and Marc Hagel have also shown great potential for this year, earning 7 points in the Morrisville State game.
With these leaders, I expect that Princeton can have a successful year. But it won’t be easy. As Derrick Thackery on Grand Theft Auto once remarked, “the bottom line is, if they don’t score more points than the other team, they can’t win.” With Princeton’s strategy this may be hard. Like Cornell, the Tigers traditionally focus on a rock-solid defense and keeping their opponents from getting good scoring chances. This has been successful (they allowed only 30.8 shots per game last year, compared to Clarkson’s 34.2 spg and Harvard’s 35.1), but this is only effective with phenomenal goaltending. Cornell made a defensive strategy work last year because they had Ben Sorivens between the posts. Sorivens averaged allowing only 1.87 goals per game and had a save percentage of .934. Princeton’s starter this year, Alan Reynolds, had a 3.00 GAA and .899 SV% last year. I do not mean to say that Reynolds is a bad goalie, because he’s not. Indeed, he’s quite good, but not necessarily good enough to bet an entire team on.
Princeton needs to focus on offensive production. The Tigers averaged 35.9 shots per game, on par or above most teams, but scored fewer than 3 goals per game. This translates to a .082 shooting percentage, well below what a competitive team needs to have. Clearly, Princeton’s offense can get the puck on net, but getting it in the net is another question. I traditionally complain about teams not shooting enough, but I think for the Tigers the focus needs to be on improving shooting opportunities. So far I have seen improvement in this area. In the first games, Princeton had a .112 shooting average, and also far more shots on goal 51 per game. If they can keep this up, they should have a highly competitive year.
Ultimately, though, it’s hard to predict a team’s success this early on. Last year, pundits predicted Princeton to finish near the top of the ECAC: they placed ninth. This year we have a good pool of young talent. The first two games have been good, but the real test will be this weekend’s games against Dartmouth, Brown, and #5 ranked Yale. Dartmouth and Brown appears to be evenly matched with Princeton this year, while Yale is clearly a tough opponent. If we can win at least two of the games, this should be a sign of a good year ahead. If not, this may be another sluggish year.
On a related note, be sure to tune in for WPRB’s coverage of the Dartmouth game. Coverage will begin on 103.3 FM and wprb.com at 4:00pm on Friday.
Preview: Men’s Lax, Dartmouth @ Princeton
In previous years, this game would have been taken for granted. Princeton-Dartmouth? An easy one for the oddsmakers. Last year, Princeton defeated Dartmouth 14-7; business as usual for the Tigers. But this year, it’s been anything but business as usual.
True, Princeton is ranked 5th in the Inside Lacrosse poll, and 6th in the USILA, so one could easily say that the loss of legendary coach Bill Tierney hasn’t affected them one bit. And I would tend to agree: Chris Bates has done a fine job, and Princeton has a very strong team. But regardless of the coaching situation, this year has been a little bit unusual. Princeton defeated Ivy rivals Penn and Yale, the former one of the traditional doormats of the league, by one goal each, with the Penn game requiring overtime to win it. The in-state rival Scarlet Knights of Rutgers were tripped up by the Tigers 10-8, with Princeton needing not one, but two goals with a man down to pull out the victory. These are not strong teams by any stretch of the imagination, which is cause for concern, and reason to think that the Dartmouth game will be far from a cupcake.
The two losses are some of the most respectable possible in NCAA lacrosse: North Carolina and Syracuse. After North Carolina, fans were disappointed, but not worried. The same cannot be said of last weekend’s Syracuse game. In the Big City Classic – the first event at the new Meadowlands Stadium – the Tigers barely avoided losing by a touchdown and a field goal, falling to the Orange 13-4. For both squads, it was a true team effort. Syracuse was in sync, executing crisp passes and plays and just generally looking dominant. On the Orange and Black side, the exact opposite was the case: everybody stunk. All teams are allowed off days, and Tiger fans can only hope that was the only one this season. The Rutgers victory is cause for optimism, but the bandwagon won’t really get rolling until a dominant win over one of the next two opponents – Dartmouth and Harvard – or a defeat of perennial powerhouse Cornell in two weeks.
Regaining that momentum is exactly why this game is so important. Most observers – myself included – expect the Tigers to win and retain their position atop the Ivy League standings, but the margin of victory is key. If it’s a squeaker like the Penn or Yale games, Princeton won’t have won over any supporters. If they go out and thrash the Big Green like they are capable of, the following weeks will be a little less straining on the nerves of the team and the fans.
Keys to the game:
1) Tyler Fiorito. This one is pretty self-explanatory, but Fiorito started off the season slowly, and reached a low point last weekend against Syracuse, letting in 13 goals and saving only 12 shots. He bettered himself with a fantastic performance on Tuesday against the Scarlet Knights, allowing only 8 goals to go with 14 saves. As he goes, so do the Tigers, and if his performance against Rutgers turns into a streak, Princeton should win handily.
2) Shutting down Ari Sussman. The senior captain of the Big Green also leads them in points with 28, 16 goals and 12 assists. The Big Green are last in the Ivy League in scoring, so if Chad Wiedmaier can keep him in check, there are not too many options that can threaten the Princeton net. Junior Josh Etzion and Freshman Chris Costabile are solid players, but denying opportunities to the star of an already weak attack can finish the game before it really gets started.
3) Keep the foot on the gas pedal. Not even considering the implications for national polls, which become important in terms of seeding for the NCAA tournament, a shellacking of Dartmouth will do wonders for the psyche of the team, and give them much-deserved confidence going into the back stretch of the season.
Prediction: 12-9, Princeton
Update: Congratulations on the Princeton Tigers impressive win 16-2 win over Dartmouth. We hope you continue to surprise us.
Princeton in the Final Four
A week ago, many of us here at WPRB Sports were predicting an impressive postseason run from a Princeton basketball team. The Women’s Basketball team. Taking a 21 game win streak into their first NCAA tournament, the Lady Tigers were poised as an 11-seed to put the the program on the map and drastically improve the Ivy League’s relatively poor reputation in Women’s Basketball. Instead, a nightmare game saw the Lady Tigers’ win streak snapped to St. John’s 65-47 as Princeton shot 28% from the floor, and 10% from beyond the three point line. As head coach Courtney Banghart said after the game, “I have not seen [our team] shoot that poorly in a practice or a game all year.” Still, the women should certainly be congratulated on a season that is undoubtedly Women’s Basketball’s best on record, as they finished (26-3) and thoroughly dominated the Ivy League, going 14-0 against Division foes.
While the Princeton media have been focusing on the historic event of the women’s first NCAA tournament, the men have begun there own postseason run. Princeton entered the College Basketball Invitation (CBI) which is a postseason tournament headquartered in Princeton, NJ. The tournament began with a close game against Atlantic-10 team Duquesne last Wednesday which saw the Tigers break away in the last 10 minutes and finish on top 65-51.
The tigers then traveled to Indianapolis to face IUPUI in the Quarterfinals (for those sports trivia obsessed readers, that’s the Indiana-University-Purdue-University Indianapolis Jaguars). The “Catfight in the Jungle” took place Monday night in front of a sellout crowd that included Indiana governor Mitch Daniels. The Jaguars took a quick lead in the game due to the aggressive offense of forwards Robert Glenn and Alex Young who both came into the game averaging 18+ ppg. IUPUI held double digit leads twice in the game but, like they have all season, Princeton roared back to tie it in regulation behind two Ian Hummer layups after the Jaguars missed two free throws in the last 30 seconds.
The Jaguars had another chance to win the game in the first overtime but Glenn missed a 12 foot jumper as time expired. In the second overtime, Princeton’s vaunted #1 defense in the country showed up just in time. The Jaguars, who mostly played the same five players for the entire game, were exhausted and committed turnovers on three of their first four possessions and were unable to score in the five minute period. Princeton went on to win 74-68.
This Wednesday, Princeton travels to Saint Louis to face the SLU Billikens in the final four of the CBI. Saint Louis is a very good team who has beaten the likes of Southern Illinois, Richmond, Saint Joe’s, Rhode Island, Nebraska, and Wisconsin Green Bay. They lost by 6 against Temple, 2 against Xavier, and 12 against Notre Dame, so they obviously have experience playing some of the best teams in the league.
It will certainly be one of the Tigers’ toughest challenges this year behind the Cal game earlier in the season and the two Cornell games. But the Tigers come into the game as the #1 defensive team in the nation and have really hit their stride in the last month. Their two 3-point losses against Cornell, could have been wins if not for a couple plays and Ryan Whittman’s clutch 3-pointer in the first game and we all know now how good that Cornell team really is. However, Princeton is going to need a better effort than they put out last night. The Tigers were outrebounded by the Jaguars 48-33 and hit only 10-21 free throws. If Zach Finley and Pavel Buczak can establish themselves down low, and Ian Hummer can repeat his marvelous 16 point performance from Monday night, the Tigers have a real chance to move on to the finals.
This is a team that knows what could have been had a couple more baskets gone in against Cornell. But they’ve moved on and are in the process of showing how good they, and the Ivy League are. It’s not on a national scale like Cornell’s Sweet Sixteen run, but the for Tigers that’s not the point. This was a remarkable season, and their 22-8 record is only two years removed from a 6-23 record. But it’s not over just yet, and the three main seniors – Marcus Schroeder, Pawel Buczak and Zach Finley – have a good opportunity to make sure it stays that way on Wednesday night.
You can listen to the Tiger’s postseason run continue at WPRB 103.3 fm and coast-to-coast on listen.wprb.com. Tip off is at 9pm EST, March 24th.
David Capra is the Sports Director of WPRB and can be reached at sports@wprb.com
Preview: Harvard @ Princeton Men’s Ice Hockey, ECAC Playoffs
Last year at this time, Guy Gadowsky and the men’s ice hockey team were relaxing in Hobey Baker Rink, practicing and waiting to see who their ECAC quarterfinal opponent would be. That time – and that season as a whole – seems long ago. As the Tigers prepare to host the Harvard Crimson this weekend, they have to look back on the past few months as a great disappointmet – yet also notice reasons for optimism.
The 2009-2010 Tigers (12-14-3, 8-12-2 ECAC), perhaps feeling the aftershocks of the most devastating loss in program history to Minnesota-Duluth in the first round of the NCAAs, slipped to 8th place in the league, and were fortunate to even achieve the goal of hosting a playoff series. They needed a win against Brown combined with a Crimson loss at St. Lawrence to move the series from Cambridge to Princeton. Injuries, players playing out of position, inexperience, and just general inconsistent play all combined to make the Tigers a much weaker force in conference play than they were the past two years. Star goaltender Zane Kalemba, a Hobey Baker finalist last season, failed to even make third-team All-ECAC honors. Only one player – defenseman Taylor Fedun – was honored by the league, earning a spot on the second-team conference roster.
But these Tigers won’t have that negative mindset going into this weekend. Regardless of future outcomes, they are the favorites in this series and know it – not that they are feeling arrogant by any means, but simply confident. Their two games against Harvard (7-19-3, 7-12-3 ECAC) this season were a 3-3 tie at Hobey Baker Rink and a 2-1 victory in Boston. Injuries that have decimated the roster this season are less of a factor. It’s a new season now (as cliche as that sounds) and the Tigers are well aware that to receive a third straight NCAA tournament berth, they must win the ECAC crown. The first step in that path is a victory in the three-game series at Baker this weekend.
Let’s take a look at the statistics in the matchup, which show that the teams are actually quite similar in many respects. The third period has been the downfall of each, with Princeton being outscored by its opponents 38-27, and Harvard by an even larger margin, 45-25, so one team is going to have to break that trend, and whoever does so likely will be moving on. Both teams have struggled on special teams. Harvard scores on 17.6% of their power plays, and gives up goals on 21.1% of the opposition’s man advantages. Princeton’s special teams are prone to more goal-scoring, but they still run a deficit of 20% conversion rate on their power plays to a 24% rate for their opponents. Both teams have a lower shooting percentage than their opponents.
Princeton has three distinct advantages: faceoffs, number of shots, and penalties. Princeton wins 50.6% of its faceoffs, not an outstanding number, but compared to Harvard’s miserable 45.6%, it’s much better. Time of possession – and specifically time in the offensive zone – will be key for both teams, because neither team has – based on the stats from this year, though Kalemba comes in with the best netminder reputation – a goalie who consistently will stand on his head and turn away shot after shot during sustained offensive pressure by the other team. Having watched the Tigers this season, one of their downfalls has been the inability to clear the puck from the defensive zone, even at even strength, and from seeing one game against the Crimson, the same assessment applies to them. The faceoffs are an obvious way for a team to establish possession, and Princeton would seem to have the upper hand, but they need to control the puck in the offensive zone to capitalize on this advantage.
Additionally, Princeton takes many more shots than its opponents, while the opposite is true for Harvard. Princeton outshoots its opponents by 5 shots per game, 36-31, whereas Harvard is outshot 35-29. Princeton’s statistic may be a little deceptive, given that they often struggle to generate a continuous offensive possession and sometimes settle for low-quality shots, but the goaltending for Harvard has not been top-notch this year, and sometimes throwing the puck at the net and seeing what happens can make or break a game. Harvard will have to work hard to send a barrage of shots Kalemba’s way, but assuming Princeton can do the same to the Crimson goaltender, they should be in decent shape. Speaking of goaltenders, who will start for Harvard? It’s unclear. Kyle Richter and Ryan Carroll have platooned all year; Carroll started last Friday in a 2-1 OT loss to Clarkson, and Richter started on Saturday in St. Lawrence, but was relieved by Carroll after allowing three goals. The play from last weekend might seem to give the edge to Carroll, but head coach Ted Donato will likely go with the hot hand.
The last advantage held by Princeton is in penalties. Harvard has taken 158 minors and their opponents have only taken 142, whereas Princeton has taken fewer than its opponents, 152-154. Because both teams have weak special teams, power plays become crucial – not only because they allow for goal-scoring chances, but because they keep the other team out of a 5 on 5 situation in which both teams are better.
So what are 3 keys to the game for each team?
Harvard:
- Get Louis Leblanc going: there’s a reason he’s so highly touted, and why he leads Harvard in goals and points. Keep him on the ice as long as possible.
- Find a rhythm in goal: neither Richter nor Carroll have dominated this season, but one of them is going to have to step up and be the guy. A goaltender rotation is generally ineffective in playoff hockey, where a hot goalie can carry a team a long way. One of the two is going to have to step up.
- Have great puck control in the offensive zone: Princeton has trouble clearing the puck, even during 5 on 5 situations. The longer possession stays at Princeton’s end, the more vulnerable the defense becomes to a fluke deflection or a juicy rebound. Get the puck out to the point and be patient.
Princeton:
- Zane Kalemba plays like Zane Kalemba can: he was fantastic in last year’s ECAC tournament, even in the loss to Cornell in the semifinals (in fact, I think that was his best game). He’s been shakier this year, but he’s displayed some amazing performances, including the second game against Harvard, a 2-1 Princeton victory. It seems obvious to say, but he needs to be better if Princeton wants to beat Harvard, much less get to Albany for the ECAC semis.
- Senior leadership: forwards Dan Bartlett and Mark Magnowski are the leading point-getters on this Tiger squad. Jody Pederson and Brad Schroeder anchor the blue line, and of course Kalemba stars in net. This is certain to be their last weekend at Baker Rink, so expect them to have a little extra motivation.
- Get the first goal: Princeton outscores its opponents 27-16 in the 1st period, and those goals are sorely needed given the 3rd period letdowns that have plagued the Tigers all season long. Applying pressure early, rattling the goaltender – and whether its Richter or Carroll, they’ll have to play well to stay on the ice, which could cause some nerves – and jumping out to that early lead will force Harvard to lead the 3rd period onslaught, something they are unaccustomed to doing as evidenced by their negative goal differential in the 3rd.
The games are at 7 PM on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday (if necessary) so come on out to Hobey Baker Rink if you’re in the area and get your tickets before they sell out.
Prediction: Tigers in 3