1. New York Yankees (69-41): The defending champs lead the tough AL East by 2.5 games over the Rays. Phil Hughes will try to continue his good year (13-4, 3.96 ERA) and secure a series victory against the Red Sox. The Yanks will travel to Texas for a two-game series against the division-leading Rangers, before heading off to Kansas City for another four against the Royals. The lineup is healthy and swinging the bats well with a ML-leading 591 runs scored.
2. Tampa Bay Rays (67-44): A five-game losing streak has the Rays 2.5 games behind the Yankees, but still 4.5 games ahead of the Twins and Red Sox for the AL Wild Card. The Rays’ offense is potent (3rd in ML with 555 runs), but streaky. On Sunday, they were almost no-hit for the 3rd time this season. A trip to Detroit to face the banged-up Tigers, followed by a home series against the Orioles, should help the Rays right the ship. The Rays swept a four-game set against the Tigers at the end of July, and they have won seven of nine against the O’s.
3. Texas Rangers (64-47): With a seven game lead in the AL West, the Rangers are cruising to a division title and a playoff berth. After a nine-game road trip, the Ballpark at Arlington will be a most pleasant sight for the Rangers. Texas has a solid 36-21 record at home, with the Yanks and Red Sox coming to visit this week. However, Texas has struggled against the AL East with a combined record of 9-16. Something’s gotta give.
4. Cincinnati Reds (64-48): Leading St. Louis by two games in the NL Central, the Reds prepare for a showdown in Cincinnati as the Cards come into town. The Reds are playing very well, having won 15 of their 22 games since the All-Star break. Thanks to ace Johnny Cueto and rookie surprises Mike Leake and Travis Wood, as well as an offense that leads in the NL in runs scored, Cincinnati is a legitimate contender. Ochocinco and T.O. need to watch out; the Reds could steal the show by October.
5. San Diego Padres (64-46): There is a lot to like about the Padres, considering they have the best record in the NL. They lead the majors with the fewest runs allowed (382) and the best run differential in the NL (+98). However, their offense is anemic, scoring only 480 runs (20th in the majors). The Pirates come into San Diego for a three-game set, before the Padres head off for a crucial ten-game road trip, including a weekend series in San Francisco to face the second-place Giants who only trail by 2 games.
6. Atlanta Braves (64-47): The Braves lead the Phillies by 2 games in the NL East, after taking three of four from the Giants over the weekend. The Braves have the best home record in baseball at 39-15, but have struggled mightily away from Turner Field at 25-32. They are the only division leader with a sub-.500 road record, and it begs the question of whether they can win on the road in the playoffs. This week, the Braves make a quick trip to Houston before returning home for a series against the Dodgers.
7. Minnesota Twins (63-49): The Twins trail the White Sox by .5 games in the AL Central, but that could all change in the next two weeks. Six of the Twins’ next nine games come against the White Sox, including a match-up at U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago starting tomorrow. I put the Twins ahead of the White Sox for two main reasons: they are playing well even without one of their best hitters, former AL MVP Justin Morneau, and second, the Twins have a significantly better run differential (+97 compared to only +60 for Chicago).
8. San Francisco Giants (63-49): The Giants trail the Padres by 2 games, but still lead the NL Wild Card by half a game over the Phillies. Dropping three of four against the Braves didn’t help their cause, but they return home with a golden opportunity to improve their chances. First, a four-game series against the struggling Chicago Cubs, who have just one win in their last twelve games. Then, a weekend series against the NL West leaders, as the Padres travel up the coast for three games. San Francisco is second in the majors in fewest runs allowed with 405 runs, trailing only the Padres.
9. Chicago White Sox (63-48): The White Sox lead the Twins by just .5 games in the AL Central, and that lead could be in serious jeopardy. Chicago has dropped two of three to the resurgent Orioles, and they will look to salvage a series split when their newest acquisition Edwin Jackson takes the mound tonight in Baltimore. The White Sox will return home for a crucial series against the Twins, and then they will face off against division rival Detroit Tigers over the weekend. Chicago drops to ninth in my rankings because of a poor performance in Baltimore, and more importantly, they have the worst run differential of any division leader at +60 runs.
10. Philadelphia Phillies (62-49): Two games back of Atlanta in the NL East, and .5 games behind the Giants for the NL Wild Card spot, the Phillies have been making a strong run for a playoff berth over the past few weeks. Despite injuries to Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Shane Victorino, the Phillies have won 14 of their last 17 games to rise up the standings. The Dodgers come into town for three games starting Tuesday, then a quick drive up to Citi Field to face the New York Mets over the weekend. If the Phils can get back Utley, Howard and Victorino, look for them to challenge the Braves for the NL East title.
On deck: St. Louis Cardinals
In the hole: Boston Red Sox
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