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NFL Picks: Week 1

Here we go. Football season has finally arrived. Done with the draft, free agency, training camp and preseason nonsense. Back to the games. It’s a fresh start and all fans have hope that this is their year. Well, almost everyone. (Sorry, Bills fans). And with the beginning of the NFL season, the predicting and prognosticating begins as well. So I figured I might as well join the experts and try my luck. And for the record, I do not condone gambling, but I will be using point spreads throughout the season. My picks in bold.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-5.5): The defending Super Bowl champs open the new season at home in a rematch of the NFC championship game. For this pick, you only need to know one stat. The last ten defending Super Bowl champs have won their opening game. The last reigning champion to lose their first game were the 1999 Denver Broncos, who lost Hall of Fame QB John Elway to retirement. Not to mention, the Vikes will be without playmaker WR Sidney Rice due to a hip injury. I’m not sold on Favre being completely ready and/or healthy. Give me the Saints in the Superdome.

Carolina Panthers (+6.5) at New York Giants: A pair of 8-8 teams matchup in the opening of the new Meadowlands. These teams met in late December, and the Panthers gained nearly 250 rushing yards on their way to an 8-7 victory in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Giants defense was suspect last year, 30^th in the league in points allowed at 26.7 per game. However, there is hope as S Kenny Phillips returns from knee surgery and rookie DE Jason Pierre-Paul could add to any already formidable D-line of Mathias Kiawanuka, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora. Still, I’ve never been impressed by the younger Manning, the Panthers take a step forward with Matt Moore at QB. Carolina keeps this one close enough to cover.

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (-4.5): The Bengals definitely take a step back this year, even with the addition of WRs Terrell Owens and rookie Jordan Shipley. Last year, the Bengals had the lowest point differential (+14) of any division champ, indicating they weren’t quite as good as their record suggested. The Patriots still have a vaunted offense with Tom Brady at the helm, and loads of weapons including Randy Moss and Wes Welker. However, their defense has several key injuries, including DE Ty Warren and CB Leigh Bodden. The Bengals have a very good pass defense (6^th in the NFL last year), but Tom Brady is still Tom Brady. Expect a high scoring affair, but eventually the Pats outscore the Bengals.

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5): Ben Roethlisberger’s four-game suspension has thrown second-year QB Dennis Dixon into the fire. The young and mobile Dixon will start for Big Ben, just like he did in Week 12 last year against the Ravens. The expectation is for Dixon to struggle to replace Ben, but I like Dixon to work within his means. Even with a subpar offensive line, Dixon can pass off of bootlegs and rely on RB Rashard Mendenhall to carry the workload. Atlanta was an average team last year (16^th in yards gained, 21^st in yards allowed), and I refuse to jump on the Matt Ryan bandwagon before I see better results.

Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5): Can we designate this game the Tebow Bowl? In his first NFL game, Tim Tebow returns to the state of Florida. Granted Tebow will hardly play, if at all, but still Jacksonville fans probably adore him more than their own team. Why Jacksonville didn’t select him in the draft to reinvigorate their franchise is beyond me. I’m sure they’ll regret it in ten years when they become the Los Angeles/Las Vegas Jaguars, or my personal favorite Mexico City Jaguares. Even without Superman Tebow, Jacksonville runs all over the Broncos, who were 26^th in rushing yards allowed last year, especially with Denver star DE Elvis Dumervil out for the season. On a completely unrelated note, Jacksonville RB Maurice Jones-Drew is on my fantasy team, so he better do well.

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (-6): Titans RB Chris Johnson gained over 2000 rushing yards last year and secured himself among the league’s elite backs in only two years in the NFL. The Oakland Raiders seemed to make strides on the defensive side of the ball with the addition of longtime Patriots DE Richard Seymour. With Seymour and All-Pro CB Nnamdi Asomugha (say that name three times fast), Oakland improved to 7^th in passing yards allowed. But, the Raiders’s defense was porous against the run, allowing nearly 2500 rushing yards last year for 29^th in the NFL. Did I mention that the Titans have a pretty good running back?

Miami Dolphins (-3) at Buffalo Bills: The Buffalo Bills haven’t been to the playoffs since 1999. For reference, the world knew George W. Bush as Texas governor/Rangers owner, not the 43^rd President. Britney Spears was topping pop charts, we didn’t know who Maximus Decimus Meridius was, and we terribly regretted George Lucas creating Jar Jar Binks. On the other hand, I really like the Dolphins as a sleeper team to make the playoffs. Miami plays a tough hard-nosed style, using both Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown in the running game, and third-year QB Chad Henne is poised for a breakout season.

Cleveland Browns (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Cleveland ended last season on a high note winning their last four games. Over the offseason, the Browns added veteran QB Jake Delhomme from Carolina. Though Delhomme has had turnover issues, I like him to bounce back and be half-decent for the Browns. Don’t get me wrong, the Browns will be bad. Just not as bad. Not nearly as bad as Tampa Bay. I defy you to name a Buccaneers player not named Cadillac. You can’t. If it weren’t for the Bills, I’d feel sorry for Tampa Bay fans. But then again, they still live in Florida and I don’t.

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Houston Texans: This line boggles my mind. This is the Colts we are talking about. Peyton Manning has lost to the Texans once in his career. Let me repeat that. Indianapolis is 15-1 against Houston in the Texans’ limited existence. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson make for an interesting offense in Houston, but it’s still Peyton Manning on the other side of the field. He’s pretty good from what I’ve heard.

Detroit Lions (+6.5) at Chicago Bears: The Lions have a pair of really exciting rookies that have my rooting and hoping for something good to finally come to Detroit. DT Ndamukong Suh may be the most fascinating rookie to watch given his sheer physical strength and ability to throw anyone and everyone around. RB Jahvid Best, another rookie Lion, could establish a dynamic running game to help second-year QB Matthew Stafford find some success. Meanwhile in Chicago, Jay Cutler looks to bounce back from a season of miscues, in which he threw a league-high 27 interceptions. Unless new offensive coordinator and passing offense guru Mike Martz improves Cutler’s decision making, I myself may pick Cutler off a few times. I like the Lions to upset the Bears, and move ahead of them in the NFC North.

Arizona Cardinals (-4) at St. Louis Rams: With the departure of Kurt Warner, Arizona has had trouble finding his replacement at QB. They have settled on Derek Anderson as the starter and moved on from the Matt Leinart Era. I really like Anderson’s ability ever since he showed some promise as the Browns starter in 2007. In St. Louis, the Sam Bradford era is beginning, but at least it can’t get any worse than last year, right? The rookie QB takes over a 1-15 team from last year, and skilled position players are lacking (other than RB Stephen Jackson) ever since WR Donnie Avery went down with an injury.

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles: A trendy pick for Super Bowl contender, the Green Bay Packers start off the season in Philly against the Donovan McNabb-less Eagles. Kevin Kolb will be taking over as QB in Andy Reid’s offense, but I’m not exactly buying what the Eagles are selling. I will nominate myself for honorary Cheesehead status because I do like the Packers’ explosive offense with Aaron Rodgers throwing to Greg Jennings, James Jones and Jermichael Finley. The Packers should roll unless “Green Man” joins the Eagles in the next couple days.

San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Seattle Seahawks: Have the 49ers finally put together a playoff team? Much like the Texans, it seems like the Niners are a trendy playoff sleeper but always manage to fall a couple games short. Led by All-Pro LB Patrick Willis, San Francisco was 4^th in the NFL in points allowed last year. In an awful NFC West, this may be the year they break through. Meanwhile, in Seattle, first-year head coach Pete Carroll returns to the NFL after a long tenure at the University of Southern California. Sorry, but Carroll’s collegiate success doesn’t translate to an NFL team without much talent.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+3.5): Albert Haynesworth has grabbed the headlines in DC, but Donovan McNabb could put this team back in the playoffs. A decent defensive team last year (8^th in passing yards allowed, 16^th in rushing yards, 10^th in total yards) should get a boost offensively from the new QB where they struggled mightily last season. The Cowboys will be good; in fact, I predict they will win their division once again. But the Redskins keep this one close and challenge Dallas for the NFC East title.

Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) at New York Jets: Monday Night Football kicks off with the matchup of the two most hyped teams in the NFL.  The Ravens have garnered attention from NFL analysts and prognosticators of the like. Same with the Jets, except they mostly have their loud-mouthed coach and HBO’s Hard Knocks to thank. To be fair, these teams are both really good. Except for the Jets. The Jets should not have may the playoffs last year but lucked out with a second-string Colts team. Their defense is great, and Revis Island is fantastic. However, Mark Sanchez is not a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback yet. The offensive line is good, but the loss of Pro Bowl G Alan Faneca will hurt the running game. Joe Flacco and his newly acquired WRs Anquan Boldin and TJ Who’sYaMomma (is that how you spell it?) can spread out opposing defenses enough to give RB Ray Rice some room to run.

San Diego Chargers (-4.5) at Kansas City Chiefs: The nightcap of opening week’s MNF seems like an easy pick. San Diego has rolled this division the last couple years. The Chargers have won the AFC West four years running and compiled a 20-4 record against division opponents along the way. Rookie RB Ryan Mathews is the early favorite for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, and could improve this offense despite the loss of LaDainian Tomlinson. WR Vincent Jackson’s suspension could throw a slight monkey wrench into passing attack, but stud QB Philip Rivers still has plenty of options with WR Malcolm Floyd, TE Antonio Gates, and RB Darren Sproles out of the backfield.