NFL Picks: Week 2
Week 1 of the 2011 NFL season saw several teams get off to a hot start. The Bills rocked the Chiefs by 34 points. The Ravens destroyed their bitter rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers, by the score of 35-7. The Texans jumped all over the Manning-less Colts, winning by 27 points. And that was just the early games. Well, yours truly joined those teams with a fantastic start to this year’s column, going 10-6 with my picks. Lets find out if I can continue that blistering pace, just as many NFL teams will look to do in Week 2. Last week: 10 wins – 6 losses.
Oakland Raiders (+4) at Buffalo Bills: Maybe this year is the one that the Bills finally make the jump to contender. At least that’s what 7 people in Buffalo believe. Since they are still stuck in the AFC East, I can’t see that happening with the Jets and Patriots as locks to win 9 games each, if not more. Last year, the Bills were the worst team defense against the run, and Oakland’s strength is its tandem rushing attack of Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. They racked up 190 yards in Week 1, and they will do much of the same on Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions (-8): Last week, I said that the Chiefs would have trouble returning to the playoffs with a harder schedule. I think that was a bit of an understatement. The Chiefs will have trouble winning games because they are not a very good team. In fact, they are pretty mediocre on a good day. On a bad day, they get shellacked by 34 points by the Bills. This Sunday will be another bad day. Losing defensive standout in safety Eric Berry for the season certainly won’t help matters for the folks in KC.
Baltimore Ravens (-6) at Tennessee Titans: I tried to convince myself that six points was too many points to lay on the Ravens, who benefitted from 7 turnovers from the Steelers last week. (That’s not a typo, seven!) There’s no way the Ravens will repeat that feat this week. But it’s also hard to imagine Matt Hasselbeck tearing up this Baltimore defense. And the Titans were particularly weak against the run last season and in Week 1, and the Ravens’ Ray Rice is among the top running backs in the league.
Cleveland Browns (-2) at Indianapolis Colts: Considering the Browns lost to the Bengals in Week 1, it’s odd that they are favored on the road in Week 2. But the Colts looked lost without number 18 under center. Without Manning, the Colts are a legitimate threat to go 1-15 or even 0-16. If the Colts can’t win this home game, they need to find the panic button immediately.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2) at Minnesota Vikings: I rode the Tampa Bay bandwagon into the ground with their home loss to the Detroit Lions. But I’m relying on the idea that the Lions might be a playoff team in hiding. Minnesota’s offense was rather pitiful against San Diego in Week 1, as QB Donovan McNabb threw for an astonishingly low 39 yards. While the Chargers are a very good team, nothing can excuse that kind of offensive performance.
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-6.5): Looking at Chicago’s Week 1 at a glance, and you might conclude that the Bears steamrolled a Falcons team that had the NFC’s best record a year ago. But the Falcons gained more first downs and squandered both their chances in the redzone, cashing in for zero points on two trips. The Saints moved the ball up and down the field against the defending champion Packers, gaining 477 totals yards on offense. In fact, New Orleans outgained Green Bay by nearly 80 yards. I doubt that the Saints will have any trouble moving the ball in the Superdome.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+9) at New York Jets: The big matchup in the Meadowlands on Sunday will be how Maurice Jones-Drew and the Jags’ rushing attack fares against the Jets’ stingy run defense. But the Jags’ style of pounding the ball on the ground will eat up clock and limit mistakes. Plus, the Jets’ reliance on Mark Sanchez to pass the ball after their running game was entirely ineffective against the Cowboys has me worried about their ability to cover this spread. I’m sure I’ll be eating my words at four o’clock on Sunday.
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14): The Steelers could not have played a worse game than they did in Week 1. That seven turnover performance (still not a typo) led to an embarrassing 35-7 defeat. I feel sorry that the Seahawks have the unfortunate task of facing an angry Steelers team with something to prove. Last week, they looked out of sorts. This Sunday, they will come out with an edge. I’d be afraid if I were Seattle QB Tarvaris Jackson. Very afraid.
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins (-3.5): Take this one to the bank. The Redskins were one of my favorite upset picks from last week, and they proved me right. Now they get the Cardinals, who also won in Week 1. But that was against the Carolina Panthers and I’m not impressed yet. I’m locked in on the Redskins surprising some people this season. The Cardinals’ shaky pass defense which allowed over 400 yards in the air last week will be their downfall yet again.
Green Bay Packers (-10) at Carolina Panthers: This one is really tough for me. I can’t believe I’m going to go against my guy Cam Newton. Even after that fantastic debut, I’m just afraid that the Packers will ramp up the pressure on the rookie QB. But maybe if he watches Green Bay’s QB Aaron Rodgers, he can learn a few things for the rest of the season.
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at San Francisco 49ers: Plain and simple, the Cowboys should be 1-0. Two costly fourth-quarter turnovers from QB Tony Romo changed a fourteen point lead into a three point loss. Such a performance only worsens Dallas fans’ criticisms of Romo’s anti-clutchness (it’s a word, go with it). But if the Cowboys can outplay the Jets, they should get the win comfortably over this 49ers team.
Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) at Denver Broncos: Yikes. Wow, I’m definitely not watching this game. Hmm. What to say? Uhh…Cincy will likely adopt a similar strategy as Oakland did in their victory over the Broncos with a run-first offense. The Broncos allowed 190 yards on the ground, and they may be without defensive standout Elvis Dumervil, so that number may not improve against a Bengals’ rushing attack that gained nearly 140 yards against Cleveland in Week 1. It’s tough to pick the Bengals with a rookie QB, but I simply can’t put faith in Denver’s porous run defense. And that’s enough reason for me.
Houston Texans (-3) at Miami Dolphins: It seems like every year, we ask the question: “Will this be the year the Texans finally break through with a winning record and playoff berth?” Well, lets ask that question again. And this year, it’s obviously their best chance to answer “Yes!” With the Manning-less Colts faltering, the AFC South is up for grabs and Houston seems poised to take the division. Games against sub-par competition like the Dolphins are must-wins for future playoff teams.
San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots (-7): If I were a Patriots fan, I’d be psyched about this upcoming season. I mean it might help you forget about the ongoing Red Sox collapse. The Patriots’ offense will not be stopped, so covering the spread means the Chargers will need to score probably 25-30 points. This can definitely happen. But then the Patriots will just go and score more.
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons have one of the best homefield advantages in all of the NFL, but the Eagles are the bandwagon choice to replace Atlanta atop the NFC hierarchy. After watching Michael Vick and Desean Jackson tear up the St. Louis Rams, I have a feeling that this Eagles team is made for dome games. In the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, the Eagles’ speed will have another chance to shine, this time in primetime of Sunday Night Football.
St. Louis Rams (+6.5) at New York Giants: By the end of the season, many football games turn out to be battle of attrition. Health is often a crucial element to successful playoff teams. Unfortunately for both these teams, the lineups have already been greatly affected by injuries. I’ve noted the missing players for the Giants in last week’s preview, but the Rams lost their starting RB Steven Jackson and key WR Danny Amendola in their Week 1 loss to the Eagles. In addition to their preseason troubles, the Giants lost leading receiver Hakeem Nicks in their Week 1 loss to the Redskins. I’m sorry for both these fanbases. It’s never fun to watch bad luck and injuries throw your team into disarray.
More picks to follow…
NFL Picks: Week 1
Welcome back everyone! It’s certainly great to be back for the start of football season. While the college football season got underway the previous weekend, the big boys get the spotlight for Week 1 of the NFL season. And like last year, I will be attempting to write up my picks week in and week out, hopefully choosing some winners along the way. Last year I managed 17 weeks of picks and ended a mere 7 games over .500. But it’s a clean slate and everyone is undefeated in 2011 (not including last year’s playoffs. Come on, you knew what I meant!). As always, this column does not condone gambling (unless you are winning, in which case it’s just making easy money), but we will be using point spreads. S0 let’s get down to business: “Are you ready for some football?” Last season: 129 wins – 122 losses – 5 pushes.
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-4.5): In the Thursday night kickoff for the NFL season, the past two Super Bowl winners will square off at Lambeau Field up in Wisconsin. It also pits two of the league’s best quarterbacks against each other, Drew Brees for the Saints and Aaron Rodgers for the Packers. Both these teams made the playoffs last year as wild cards, but the Packers were better than their 10-6 record, leading the league in point differential last season. And they will even get some players back who missed time due to injury, most notably TE Jermichael Finley. Finley will bolster the receiving corps of Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and James Jones, and he will provide Aaron Rodgers with yet another target and all-important reliable safety valve when plays breakdown or routes downfield are covered. Green Bay was one of the league’s youngest teams last year, and they return just about everyone, plus it’s the beginning of the season so they are at full strength unlike their playoff run a year ago. Shout out to my roommate Andy who provided me with this fantastic random stat: Reigning Super Bowl champions are 15-6 when facing the previous Super Bowl winner, and 7-0 since 1993. Watch out for the Cheeseheads.
Atlanta Falcons (-2) at Chicago Bears: Believe it or not, this is a matchup of the teams with the two best records in the NFC last year. I know, I completely forgot, too! The Bears and the Falcons were surprise division champs, but they stumbled in the playoffs, and both lost to eventual Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers. Frankly, I don’t think either team was as good as their record last year, and that’ll show this year. It’ll just be a little worse for the Bears than the Falcons.
Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) at Cleveland Browns: I’m hearing a decent amount of buzz surrounding the Cleveland Browns of all teams, as a potential sleeper. Maybe I’m just a Baltimore homer but I’m not buying it. The Browns are the better team in this matchup, but I will need proof that Colt McCoy can be a playoff-ready quarterback before I select the Browns as anything but a 6-10 team. Starting off on a good note against a bad Cincy team would be a step in the right direction.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5): Of all the AFC playoff teams a year ago, Kansas City was easily the weakest. They may also have the toughest time returning to the playoffs for a second consecutive year. Last season, they were helped with one of the league’s easiest schedules, which is not the case this year. They also share a division with a rejuvenated and healthy Chargers team that is a fairly consensus pick to win the AFC West. Despite my negativity, I like the Chiefs in their season opener, simply because they are playing the Bills…poor Bills.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at St. Louis Rams: The Eagles have weapons on all sides of the ball. Michael Vick. LaSean McCoy. DeSean Jackson. Nmandi Asomugha. Asante Samuel. This may be one of the fastest, most dynamic teams ever assembled. It certainly will be fun to watch, win or lose. Look, I’m by no means an Eagles fan, but I’ll be tuning in to their games throughout the year just to watch some of their playmakers. If this team can stay healthy (and with Mike Vick as their full-time QB, that’s a big IF), I like their chances to win the NFC East. And that’ll start with a win against the upstart Rams and Sam Bradford.
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5): The Detroit Lions have a lot of bandwagon potential with all of the talk surrounding this young team. Certainly, the Lions did win four straight games to finish the previous season, but I just don’t understand this line. Doesn’t anyone else remember the Bucs won 10 games last year? Normally home teams are favored by 3 points, so people think the Lions are the better team overall? I’ll believe it when I see it. For now, the Bucs still have the advantage.
Tennessee Titans (+1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars: I wrote off the Jags at the beginning of last season, and they proved me wrong with a very respectable 8-8 season. Well, here’s hoping they won’t let me down this time! The Jags will be terrible this year. I’m not afraid to predict it again. And I think anytime you can get points versus team that just released its starting quarterback in favor of Luke McCown, you take them. Ugh, Titans win an ugly one.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) at Baltimore Ravens: In my mind, there are two types of fans: overly optimistic homers and realistically pessimistic fans. I’ll tell you quite frankly, I’m in the second group. This is always one of the closest matchups, year in and year out, but the Ravens haven’t beaten Ben Roethlisberger in seven straight games. Yes, the Ravens were able to win games against Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch as Steelers QB, but that’s not quite the same as going up against Big Ben. Say what you will about Roethlisberger, but he wins football games. And he has Baltimore’s number.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-8.5): Talk about a game of unknowns. What will the Colts look like without Peyton Manning? Will we learn exactly how valuable he is to them? Remember, we haven’t seen the Colts play a single game without Manning since he was drafted in 1998. So having Kerry Collins start on Sunday will just be weird. My guess is that somehow, despite the accolades and awards, we still manage to underestimate the impact that Peyton Manning has on the Colts. No position in sports in more meaningful than quarterback and nobody plays it better than Manning. If Peyton doesn’t return soon, Indy fans will be in for a long season.
Carolina Panthers (+6.5) at Arizona Cardinals: I make no excuses for my bias in these picks. I’m a Ravens fan and I cloud my thoughts accordingly. Well, I root for Cam Newton. He shares my last name. And that’s enough reason for me. In reality, I’m not convinced any NFC West team should be favored by nearly a touchdown. This was the worst division in NFL history last year, and they should not be much better one season later.
Minnesota Vikings (+9) at San Diego Chargers: For some unknown reason, the month of September seems to be the Chargers’ bane. In each of the previous four seasons, San Diego has started 2-3 or worse, including a 2-5 mark a season ago. They still have Norv Turner as their coach, so there’s no reason to think anything has changed. As for Minnesota, you have to think that Donovan McNabb, even if he is in the twilight of his career, will give this team a better chance to win.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5): I can only imagine that this is game 1 of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. On the one side, we have the 49ers and their new head coach Jim Harbaugh, who coached the consensus top college QB at Stanford. On the other side of the football, we have a football team that is willingly starting Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback. And yet they both have a chance to win their division despite my misgivings. Welcome to the NFC West!
New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+2): It’s no secret that the New York Giants have been ravaged by injuries. They are missing more people than I can count. Defensive standout Osi Umenyiora will be out after knee surgery, and rookie CB Prince Amukamara will not be available either with a broken foot. No one really thinks the Redskins will be good, and I don’t either. But the Giants might be just as bad.
Dallas Cowboys (+6) at New York Jets: The New York Jets made headlines with their signing of WR Plaxico Burress upon his release from jail. But I’m not convinced that switching from Jericho Cotchery to Burress makes the Jets that much better. The Cowboys will begin their first full season under head coach Jason Garrett. Dallas finished the season with a 5-3 record after Garrett took over from Wade Phillips midway through last year. The Cowboys will continue their improvement into a full-fledged contender this season, and I just think 6 points is too big a margin.
New England Patriots (-7) at Miami Dolphins: There are some question marks surrounding the Patriots’ offensive line, and certainly they will be tested by a solid defensive front seven in Monday night’s game. The Dolphins’ linebacker corps includes All-Pro Cameron Wake who finished third in the NFL last season with 14 sacks. The problem for the Dolphins is that while they get pressure on the QB, they failed to force many turnovers off of that pressure, just 19 turnovers a year ago. Tonight’s game will not get any easier as they face a Patriots’ offense that set an NFL record with just 10 turnovers given up. And anytime you are relying on Chad Henne to outplay Tom Brady, you should probably rethink your strategy.
Oakland Raiders (+3) at Denver Broncos: Both these teams come into Monday’s game happy to be starting anew. A new season means clean slates for two new head coaches, John Fox for Denver and Hue Jackson for Oakland. Look for the Raiders to run the ball, and run it some more after that. The Raiders rushed for 156 yards per game, while the Broncos gave up nearly 155 yards per game. The 1-2 punch of Darren McFadden and Michael Bush will have a field day for the Raiders’ rushing attack. Last year, the Raiders swept the series, winning in Denver by the score of 59-14. This game won’t be nearly as one-sided, but the Raiders get the road win.
Life After Tiger Woods
Around 7:00 EST on June 19, 2011, the Tiger Woods Era ended. It’s quite possible that the previous sentence is far too premature. Though it’s entirely possible that we will look back several years from now, and think that it ended back in 2008. But knowing what I know now, yesterday was the moment I felt a legitimate change in the golf hierarchy. 22-year old Rory McIlroy won his first major title, and for the first time in fifteen years, I finally felt like golf had found someone better at golf than Tiger Woods. The youngster dominated Congressional Country Club, and he lapped the field of 155 other golfers with his -16 under 268 total (both U.S. Open records). He’s ranked 8th in the world, and some sportswriter for ESPN even posted a story with the tagline “The Next Tiger Woods.” For golf’s sake, and for all of us, I hope they’re right.
We watch sports for a number of reasons. 1. Our crazed, often irrational, fandom. This means we watch our favorite teams with strong rooting interests (see: why I still watch Orioles games). 2. For the competition, close games and exciting plays/finishes (see: March Madness) 3. To see history being made. This third one is perhaps the most important when discussing the recent past and the future of golf. While Tiger burst onto the scene with the long drives and the fist pumps, Tiger made golf more exciting just because we felt like we were watching something special. We watched Tiger simply because he was Tiger. How often do you get to witness the greatest of all-time (the GOAT)? Woods was (and to a certain extent remains) a superstar unlike we had ever seen before. Very rarely does the world of golf capture the imagination of so many regular sports fans. Tiger Woods had it all. He won, and then he won some more. And he won big. His victory by fifteen strokes at Pebble Beach in 2000 remains the largest margin of victory in the U.S. Open (or any major). And he had just enough charisma in his commercials and (very brief) interviews with the media to charm you.
I was 8 years old in 1999 when I can recall my first real memory of Tiger Woods. It was the 1999 PGA Championship when he dueled with Sergio Garcia at Medinah. Even for all of Sergio’s flair (scissor kick and all), Tiger Woods’ greatness reigned supreme. Anyone who tuned in to watch golf was there to see Tiger. Those who rooted for him (like myself) wanted to see history being made. Those who rooted against him wanted a challenger to test him. He would win six more majors in the next three years including four straight in 2000-2001. We, as casual golf fans, grew accustomed to domination. For nearly fifteen years, Tiger Woods was golf. From the moment he declared “Hello, world” when turned professional in 1996, Tiger Woods completely dictated widespread public appeal for the entire sport.
Tiger was my (and many others) shot at being a ‘witness,’ to take a term from Nike’s Lebron James campaign. I was far too young to remember Jordan at his peak or even his shot over Byron Russell in the ’98 Finals. If your only memories of Michael Jordan were of him as a Washington Wizard, you wouldn’t want to miss any more chances to see the greatest who ever lived. Tiger was my chance, he was my guy. Until he wasn’t.
Ever since the 2008 U.S. Open and Woods’ subsequent surgery, followed by a tumultuous year with the Thanksgiving car crash and ensuing divorce scandal, Tiger simply has not been Tiger. He has been competitive since returning from injury, finishing 6th or better six times in majors, but without a victory. But we don’t watch Tiger because he is close to winning. Granted it’s fun when Tiger is locked in a duel (see Garcia at 1999 PGA, or Bob May in 2000 PGA), but it’s fun because he always wins. We celebrate the greatness of that miracle chip on 16th at Augusta that Tiger holed out on his way to beating Chris DiMarco for the 2005 Masters. But no one remembers the eagle chip that Y.E. Yang made on the 14th of Hazeltine to take the lead away from Tiger in the final round of 2009 PGA, a lead that Tiger never regained. If Tiger had been on the winning side that day, we could have celebrated greatness. However exciting Yang’s comeback was, it was rather forgettable in the grand scheme of golf history.
We enjoy watching superstars like Tiger or Michael Jordan because they are the greatest. And there is a certain invincibility about the GOAT. We tend to ignore Jordan’s failed comeback in 1995 losing to the Orlando Magic in the Eastern Conference Semis, just as we don’t remember Y.E. Yang’s chip-in. But years from now, we’ll still be talking about Jordan’s Flu Game and Tiger winning the U.S. Open on a broken leg. We remember Woods and Jordan for their achievements, not their failures. We watch them for the history, not the competition.
Now golf is entering the post-Tiger era, and someone will need to fill the void of superstardom. Hardcore golf fans won’t mind watching obscure player after player winning one major and then disappearing, but casual golf fans will not tune in until history is being made yet again. Tiger is 35, and yes, you can certainly still win golf tournaments into your 40s. But I worry about Tiger’s health. People might not think about golf as a tough sport physically, but few sports bend, turn and twist the body quite like a golf swing does. Certainly, golfers don’t get hit like football players, but other than a MLB pitcher’s throwing motion, I cannot think of a single integral part of a sport that requires as much flexibility. And Tiger does it at warp speed. His swing is so violent that he has now had repeated injuries to his lower body.
(Quick tangent: I am incredibly on the fence about Tiger breaking Jack’s record now. I used to think it was definitely happening. But now I’m leaning against if only because of his knee. Tiger is an incredible athlete and competitor so he can probably keep in shape until he’s 50 if he has the drive for it. It’s all in the air depending on his health and his motivation. And for the record, Jack Nicklaus won his majors #15-18 at the age of 38, 40, 40, and 46. Tiger sits at #14.)
Tiger could still make history (and I’ll still be rooting for him no matter what), but Rory McIlroy is reaching out to carry that torch. If anything, the biggest problem with “Rory McIlroy the superstar” will be that he is not American. Tiger Woods was the perfect person for putting excitement in golf. I mean how can you beat a multiethnic kid for middle-class Los Angeles with a veteran father? He went against the grain of the country club elitist perception that plagues golf despite its popularity among an incredibly large portion of the nation. It remains to be seen if Rory McIlroy can be the “everyman” golfer. Certainly Gary Player, Seve Ballesteros and Greg Norman gained popularity as foreigners.
Many times people have claimed to have found the next successor or challenger to Mr. Woods. And yet no one has surpassed Woods in terms of domination. First it was Sergio in 1999. Many people liked Adam Scott for the position. Phil is a little too old but he’s gotten it done. Anthony Kim, Dustin Johnson, and Bubba Watson are a few hotshot young Americans who have generated some buzz. But none stack up to young Rory McIlroy. Yes, McIlroy has only won one major. But he has held a lead on Sunday of the last previous three majors. And the one before that? He finished 3rd despite shooting an 80 in the second round. People may point at the collapse at Augusta as a detractor, but how quickly did he bounce back and get the monkey off his back? I say the kid has some resiliency. And he won like few have been able to do before him. He won big. Just like Tiger did. Watch your back Tiger, he’s coming for you and he’s coming fast.
NFL Picks: Wild Card Round
Playoffs?!? It’s about darn time we started talking some playoffs! After 17 weeks of games, we finally get to watch some real football. Do-or-die football. Win-or-you-go-home football. For the eight teams playing in the wild card round, their whole season is on the line. And I don’t know about you, but I’m pretty excited. Let’s do this. Last week: 5 wins – 11 losses. (Ugh). Season record: 129-122-5.
New Orleans Saints (-10) at Seattle Seahawks: Who did you think I was going to take? The defending champs who finished at 11-5, or an NFC West division winner Seattle who limped into the playoffs at an embarrassing 7-9? Ten points seems like a large spread for a playoff game on the road, especially for the Saints who have never won a playoff road game (0-3 all-time, the Super Bowl counts as a neutral site). But come on. Are you serious? The Seahawks have a mediocre defense at best, ranking near the bottom of the league at total defense at 369 yards allowed per game. In particular, Drew Brees and the high-powered passing attack of New Orleans should light up a Seattle pass defense that ranks 27th in the NFL with nearly 250 yards allowed per game. Homefield advantage won’t save their porous defense, even if they have that extra 12th man.
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5): Quiz time. How many of the Jets’ 11 wins came against teams with .500 records or better? You have five seconds to Google it. Time’s up. Your answer is 2. That’s tied for fewest among the remaining playoff teams. Yes, that’s right. The Jets have won as many games against .500-plus teams as the 7-9 Seahawks. When you consider that New York beat the Patriots in Week 2 before Tom Brady caught fire and the Pats’ young secondary came together, you’re down to one good ugly win in snowy Pittsburgh. I know the Colts are banged up, and not exactly the offensive juggernaut that they used to be. But you expect me to bet on Mark Sanchez over Peyton Manning in Indy for a primetime playoff game? You gotta be kidding me. If there’s one rule to playoff picks, it has to be go with the quarterback you trust the most. And there’s no way I am putting my faith in Mark Sanchez.
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Kansas City Chiefs: A few fun facts for this game. The Chiefs are 7-1 at home this year, and historically Arrowhead Stadium is one of the loudest and toughest to play in for a visiting team. The Ravens, however, are 3-2 in road playoff games in the past two years, including a win at New England last year, a place where very few visitors ever leave happy. Oddly enough, Baltimore is tied for the best road playoff winning percentage all-time at .667, as the Ravens are 6-4 in their relatively short history. Need a couple more to sway you towards the Ravens? How about the fact that the Chiefs’ only win over a playoff team was against Seattle? Kansas City won only 2 games over teams with .500 or better records, vs. San Diego and vs. Jacksonville. Then there is this gem about Baltimore. The Ravens held a fourth-quarter lead in every single one of their games. No other team in the NFL did that. Not even the 14-2 Patriots. (They got blown out in Cleveland, remember?) Granted the Ravens blew nine of those leads, eventually losing four of them, but the Ravens do not get blown out. They have chances to win every single game. Baltimore often wins ugly, but all coach John Harbaugh cares about is that they win. Again the Ravens defense will keep it close enough, and the offense will make some plays to get at least one playoff victory in each of Joe Flacco’s and John Harbaugh’s first three seasons.
Green Bay Packers (+2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles: Honestly, I just think that Green Bay is the more complete and better all-around team. Clearly, the Eagles have the most dynamic player in all of the NFL. But as much as Michael Vick amazes crowds, his counterpart for Green Bay, QB Aaron Rodgers has a top-five quarterback in the NFL for several years now. And yes, the Packers did defeat the Eagles 27-20 earlier in the season, but that was in Week 1 and Vick did not start that game, so I think we can discount it when discussing the upcoming game on Sunday. While the dueling QBs should make for a fairly even game on the offensive side of the ball, Green Bay’s defense is going to be the difference in this game. The Packers ranked 2nd in scoring defense this season, allowing just 15 points per game. That defensive effort was a large reason that Green Bay had the highest scoring differential in the league at +148. Like I said, the Packers have the whole package, offense and defense, so I’ll take Green Bay and the points.