NFL Picks: Week 17
We have reached the final week of the NFL regular season, and week after week the NFL has proven to be unpredictable (just as every other season) mostly because of parity, injuries and blind luck. And then there’s Week 17, the worst of them all. How can you know if a team is going to perform or not? What motivation do they have? 16 of the NFL’s 32 teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. New England has already locked up the #1 seed in the AFC, and the Philadelphia Eagles are guaranteed the #3 seed in the NFC. That leaves less than half the league playing for anything. I’m warning you now, it won’t be a normal week (not that any week in the NFL is ever “normal”). Last week: 10 wins – 6 losses. Season record: 124-111-5.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-14): The Falcons need to win to secure the #1 seed and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. Considering they are 6-1 at home this year, I’m guessing they wouldn’t mind hosting a few more games in the Georgia Dome. If the Falcons don’t show up for this game, those Super Bowl aspirations from a couple weeks ago will seem very distant.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) at Cleveland Browns: With a win, the Steelers will win the AFC North and the #2 seed (and its accompanying bye) in the AFC playoffs. A loss could drop them to the 5th position, if the Ravens were to win. Pittsburgh is banged up, and a week off would really help them get their star safety Troy Polamalu healthy for the playoffs. There’s enough riding on this game for the Steelers to show up.
Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) at Detroit Lions: The most significant thing about this game is that it may very well be the last time Brett Favre is on the sidelines as an NFL player. This will (hopefully) mark the end of the sports media’s round the clock, 24/7 coverage of all things Favre (I’m looking at you, ESPN). Other than that, it’s completely meaningless, so I’ll take the points and Brett Favre-less Vikings. Let’s go JOE WEBB!
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5): A win for the Chiefs guarantees them the #3 seed (though a loss may still be enough if Indy were to lose). It would also complete a flawless 8-0 home stand at Arrowhead Stadium. Very impressive, and it’s at least something to play for. Which is more than the Raiders can boast.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-5.5): This may be the hardest game of the week to predict. Historically, the Pats have played hard in these situations during Bill Belichick’s tenure. But last year, WR Wes Welker got hurt in the regular season finale, causing him to miss the Patriots playoff game, a loss to Baltimore. Will Belichick rest his starters more than he has done in the past? Perhaps, but QB Tom Brady wants to play and even the backups for New England will have a field day.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) at New Orleans Saints: Finally, a game with both teams fighting for something, however remote the chances. The Saints are pretty much locked into the #5 seed, barring a surprise upset of Carolina over Atlanta, but the chance for homefield advantage and a bye is still there. And Tampa needs a win and some serious help (NYG loss and GB loss) to get into the playoffs. Tampa Bay is more desperate, and they can at least keep this game close.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-1.5): I guess bookmakers figure the Jets aren’t taking this game seriously. With a wildcard slot locked up for the playoffs, the Jets have a slight chance to move from a #6 seed to a #5 seed, but the difference in seeding won’t be much of a factor. Either way, they will be going on the road and will need three wins to get to the Super Bowl. Jets QB Mark Sanchez may not play much, but Buffalo may start their backup QB Brian Brohm, not wanting to chance aggravating injuries to their starter Ryan Fitzpatrick. Those Harvard kids are soft. Man up, Fitzpatrick!
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5): With a win and a Pittsburgh loss to Cleveland, the Ravens would win the AFC North and get the #2 seed and a bye for the playoffs. What is Cincy playing for? Maybe T.O. and Ochocinco are trying to get their reality TV shows renewed. But both receivers sat out last week, and I wouldn’t expect to see them on the field on Sunday or on VH1 anymore.
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (+3.5): Two teams without anything to play for. The Chargers have to be surprised they put themselves in this position, where they couldn’t climb out of the hole they dug for themselves with that terrible 2-5 start. And while I may rag on Tim Tebow, he’s the kind of guy that won’t throw in the towel even if the game won’t affect the playoffs. I’m sure this game won’t be meaningless to him, and he’ll have the Broncos wanting this game more than the downtrodden Chargers.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-9.5): If Atlanta or New Orleans win in the early games, Chicago will be set as the #2 seed. The Bears need a win, and losses from both the Falcons and Saints to jump up to the #1 and get homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Unfortunately, even in a old-timey rivalry game, the Bears will most likely rest instead of trying to knock out their NFC North rivals from playoff contention. Lame, but probably the best decision for the players’ health and stamina.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5): The Colts have a “win and you’re in” situation with the AFC South title and playoff berth. The Titans are in the midst of a downward spiral, losing 7 of their last 8 games. Peyton Manning won’t let the Colts lose, just like last week’s win at Oakland.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3): Neither team has anything to play for, despite the fact that the Eagles are in the playoffs and Dallas is nowhere near. The big difference for me is that Philly’s backup QB is Kevin Kolb, a sold serviceable QB who was the opening day starter for the Eagles. He’s no Michael Vick but he isn’t a slouch. For Dallas, third-string Stephen McGee may play if backup Jon Kitna can’t go. I know Philly fans don’t think Kolb is great after his lackluster performances earlier in the year, but he’s got to be a better bet than Stephen McGee.
Arizona Cardinals (+6) at San Francisco 49ers: Probably the most meaningless game of the whole season right here. I know both teams are horrible, but there isn’t even a top draft pick up for grabs for either team. Just good old-fashioned mediocrity. When in doubt, take the points, especially when the Smiths, Alex and Troy, are the QBs for the other team.
New York Giants (-4) at Washington Redskins: The Giants are playing for the final playoff spot in the NFC. The G-men need a win and a Packers loss, and they would be the #6 seed. The Redskins are playing to ruin their rivals. Maybe if these players cared about rivalries and such. Doubtful if you ask me. Washington should roll over after a controversy-laden, tiring and disappointing season.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) at Houston Texans: Right now, I can tell you, this is a terrible pick. It’s based solely on the fact that the Jags have something to play for. With a win and an Indy loss, the Jags would win the AFC South and a playoff berth. However, they are without their starting QB David Garrard and RB Maurice Jones-Drew, both out with injuries. So this is completely on a whim, but I think Jacksonville backup RB Rashard Jennings has got what it takes. But it might just be wishful thinking that the Colts won’t make the playoffs on my part. Whatever.
St. Louis Rams (-3) at Seattle Seahawks: If there are football gods, they will not let a 7-9 Seahawks team win the NFC West and a playoff berth. The Rams have been the best (and most fun) team from this lousy division, and it’d be a shame if they didn’t get the chance to be slaughtered in the first round of the playoffs. But come on, a team with a losing record has never been to the playoffs, and here’s to it not happening on Sunday. Cheers! and Happy New Year’s!
NFL Picks: Week 16
Two more weeks left in the NFL season and the playoff races are on everyone’s minds. But I got a serious problem with the playoff system as it is set up right now. 12 teams make it. No problem there. 4 teams get byes. That’s cool by me. Every division winner gets an automatic berth. Definitely okay even if the NFC West winner is 7-9. But division winners are guaranteed a home game, even if their record is worse than the wildcard opponent? I don’t understand that one. Right now, if the standings were to hold up in the NFC, the 7-9 NFC West team (whether it be the Seahawks, Rams or Niners) will host a defending champs Saints team that will have at least 10 wins, maybe 12. That’s just ridiculous. Give homefield advantage based on record, not based on arbitrary divisions. That’s all I want for next Christmas. Last week: 7 wins – 9 losses. Season record: 114-105-5.
Carolina Panthers (+14) at Pittsburgh Steelers: Very interesting dynamic brewing in Carolina as their dreadful season draws to an end soon. The Panthers are well on their way to having the worst record in football, and thereby receiving the #1 draft pick, where they would presumably take Stanford junior QB Andrew Luck (if he declares himself eligible). So the Panthers have to keep losing to secure the top pick, but Carolina rookie QB Jimmy Clausen is in a position where he is essentially playing to keep his job. Carolina is terrible, but 14 points seems like a lot to lay for a Steelers team coming off a short week after a brutal game against the Jets, and a cold December night in Heinz Field should limit scoring in general.
Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals (+7): In a matchup of what should have been, two division champs from last year come into Saturday night’s Christmas showdown with only nine combined wins. The Cowboys can blame Tony Romo’s broken clavicle and the poor coaching of Wade Phillips (now replaced by Jason Garrett), but the real reason this team didn’t repeat as NFC East champions: defense. Dallas has been pitiful on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 28.3 points per game, good enough for second-worst in the NFL. Arizona isn’t much better at 26.4 points allowed per game, but doesn’t seven points seem a lot to lay for a Cowboys team that has allowed 30 points or more eight times this season including the last four weeks? I think so. Gimme the points and the Cards.
New England Patriots (-7.5) at Buffalo Bills: Does anyone remember the last time the Bills beat the Pats? These divisional “rivals” (quotes because it’s tough to call this a rivalry, it’s so lopsided) face each other twice a year, yet the Bills haven’t managed to eek out a victory since September of 2003. The Pats’ 14 straight wins over Buffalo is the longest active streak of any team against a single opponent. Look for number 15 to come rather easy.
New York Jets at Chicago Bears (-2.5): The Bears continued to impress with a 40-14 victory in snowy Minneapolis, and they locked up the NFC North title in the process. Problem is that they need to keep winning to secure a bye and an extra week of rest for the playoffs. With a 10-4 record and a head-to-head victory over Philadelphia, the Bears sit in the driver’s seat for the 2nd seed behind Atlanta, but the Eagles are breathing down their backs. Chicago won’t let up on the gas pedal quite yet. I like them to beat the Jets.
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns: I’m gonna give up picking Ravens games pretty soon. Anytime I decide to be a homer, Baltimore lets me down (see Buffalo or first Cleveland game). Then I lose a little faith, the Ravens pick it back up again (see games vs. New Orleans or Miami). If I were superstitious, I would pick against Baltimore and hope they keep proving me wrong like last week. But I actually try to get these picks right (I know you probably don’t believe me), so I’m going with the Ravens. You better not let me down boys!
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-5): The Chiefs can practically taste the playoffs now. After a huge win against the cross-state rival Rams, the Chiefs come back home to Kansas City where they host the Titans. KC holds a one-game lead over San Diego in the AFC West, with home games against Tennessee and Oakland in their final two weeks. Arrowhead Stadium has always been kind to the Chiefs, and their 6-0 record at home proves it. The Chiefs continue their surprising run on Sunday.
San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (-2): I refuse to give up on the Rams. St. Louis will win this division. But the fact that the 5-9 Niners still have a legitimate shot to win the NFC West shows you just how pathetic this division has become. Whoever wins this game will most likely earn the right to get blown out by New Orleans in the first round of the NFC playoffs. Congratulations…I guess.
Detroit Lions (+3.5) at Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins are definitely my pick for most confusing team this year. 1-6 at home? But 6-1 on the road? Are you serious? Since this game will be played in Miami (despite their players petitioning to play in Detroit…okay, I made that up), the Lions seem to be the smart pick. Plus, Detroit isn’t half bad after all. Wins over the two Bays, Green and Tampa, in successive weeks has me believing in these Lions again.
Washington Redskins (+7) at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags’ star RB Maurice Jones-Drew may miss this game with nagging knee injuries, and if MJD can’t go, Jacksonville’s playoff chances are doomed. They missed out on an opportunity to seal the deal last week in Indy, and now the Jags need to win out and get help from a Colts’ loss. Obviously it’s a must-win, but I don’t believe Jacksonville has what it takes to grab the AFC South title away from Peyton Manning.
San Diego Chargers (-8) at Cincinnati Bengals: Cincy burned me last week by getting a win (finally) over the Browns to snap their 10-game losing streak. But I have made it a weekly tradition to hate on/trash/pick against the Bungles all year, and I’m riding a hot Chargers team that has outscored their opponents 65-7 in their last two games. San Diego is in a must-win situation, needing to win out and for Kansas City to lose once in the next two weeks. Chargers get their end of the bargain done in convincing fashion.
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (+3): Uh oh. I don’t have anything planned for this paragraph. I’m not watching this game. Neither should you. Unless you are Tim Tebow’s parents. The rookie QB out of the University of Florida is making his first NFL start, and I predict a win, giving something for Gator fans to cheer about. And God knows they need it after a pretty forgettable 7-5 season in Gainesville.
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Oakland Raiders: This pick comes down to a simple question. Do you believe that Peyton Manning will find a way to win this game and the AFC South, or will the Colts’ spotty run defense get exposed against the Raiders’ rushing attack? How ‘bout both. The Colts won’t shut out Oakland’s run offense, but come on. Peyton Manning is winning this game. He needs it, so he’ll make it happen.
New York Giants (+3) at Green Bay Packers: A lot has been made of the Giants’ collapse in the fourth quarter against Michael Vick and the Eagles. Blowing a 31-10 lead in the final eight minutes is a terrible sign. But leading 31-10 over a very good Philly team is an encouraging sign. Let’s not forget that the Giants were dominating the Eagles for the first 52 minutes of that game. This is a team still very much in the hunt for the final playoff spot in the NFC Wildcard. One of the teams they are competing with is Green Bay, who gets their star QB Aaron Rodgers back from an injury. In a close game, I’m taking the points and the Giants.
Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Doesn’t seven points seem like a lot to win by for a team that just lost to the Detroit Lions at home? Were the Bucs ever any good? They still haven’t won a game against an opponent over .500, and now they finally lost to a mediocre team. Their playoff hopes are nearly gone. Meanwhile, Seattle is very much alive in the NFC West, despite its very average 6-8 record. Tampa beats bad teams, but that doesn’t mean win in blowouts. I’ll take the points.
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-14): In the NFL, these huge spreads are just impossible to guess. I’m pretty confident that the Eagles will win on Sunday night. I know that unproven and untested rookie QB Joe Webb will likely start for Minnesota. I know the Eagles have a top-two MVP candidate in Michael Vick. But you just never know in the NFL if this is going to be a 10 point game or a 17 point game. I guessed wrong with Carolina on Thursday night. I hope I’m guessing right this time around.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5): I’m really excited for this game as the defending champion Saints take on the top contender in the NFC, their division rival Atlanta Falcons. And even though this game seems pretty tough to call, I never hesitated on this pick. In a fairly even matchup, home teams should be favored by 3 points. I think Atlanta’s 12-2 record, including a win over New Orleans in the Superdome, and perfect 6-0 record at home should have earned them respect. Yet this line is -2.5, meaning people value the Saints slightly higher. I don’t buy it. I know the Saints are defending champs and all, but the Falcons are here to stay, and it’s nearly impossible to beat them in the Georgia Dome. I see a lot of value with Atlanta at home as small favorites.
NFL Picks: Week 15
Last week was a crazy week to be a NFL gambler. I make these picks every week, but I don’t wager any money. However, huge sums of money are at risk every Sunday and Monday, and a couple games last week show just how difficult it is to predict final outcomes.
Exhibit A, Thursday night, Indy at Tennessee: The Colts stormed out to a 21-0 lead, making me certain they would cover the 3.5 point spread. With 30 secs left, the Titans were down 9 (30-21) and within field goal range. Smart play – Kick the FG, onside kick and try for a late TD because you need two scores anyway. Instead, coach Jeff Fisher decided to keep driving and the Titans scored a touchdown as time expired leaving them no time to complete the comeback, and so the final score ended 30-28, screwing many bettors and my pick.
Exhibit B, Sunday afternoon,Tampa at Washington: Redskins score a last-second TD to make it 17-16, need a extra point to force OT and botch the snap. I had picked Tampa Bay -2. Overtime would have meant a possibility for a game-winning FG (and three points), but instead they win by only 1.
Then finally, Exhibit C, Monday night, Baltimore at Houston: The Texans comeback to force OT, and I need Baltimore to win by more than three. An interception return for a TD by Josh Wilson made no need for any overtime field goals, and the Ravens won by 6, miraculously covering the spread. Good thing people don’t gamble serious money on these game. (Oh, wait…) Last week: 7 wins – 9 losses. Season record: 107-96-5.
San Francisco 49ers at San Diego Chargers (-10): It’s still amazing that the Chargers are only 7-6, and remain 1 game behind the Kansas City Chiefs for the AFC West division lead. With a huge 31-0 victory over Kansas City, the Chargers pulled closer to a great comeback, but how are they even in this position? The Chargers gain 400 yards per game (2nd most in the NFL), and only allow 265 yards per game (best in the NFL). When you outgain your opponents by nearly 140 yards every game, you should have the league’s best record. San Diego is better than their average record, and they should roll on Thursday night, and inch closer to the AFC West lead.
Cleveland Browns (+1) at Cincinnati Bengals: Cincy is on the verge of setting the franchise record for longest losing streak. If they lose this one, they will have 11 consecutive losses. What do you say in these groundbreaking moments? Congratulations, I guess.
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-7): Rex Grossman is starting for the Redskins in place of Donovan McNabb. Need I say more? I didn’t think so.
Houston Texans (+1.5) at Tennessee Titans: Anytime you can get points going against a team that has lost six straight, including a 20-0 loss versus these very same Texans, you gotta do it. Good value for Houston as a small underdog, they should win this game.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5): Did you know that the Jacksonville Jaguars have never won the AFC South? Their last division title came in 1999, when they were in the AFC Central. This could be the year they break through, but it’s hard to go against Peyton Manning when he’s home in a crucial game.
Kansas City Chiefs at St. Louis Rams (-3): This line assumes that Brodie Croyle will start again for the Chiefs in place of starting QB Matt Cassell, who underwent an emergency appendectomy recently. Key statistic for this game: Croyle has a career 0-10 record as a NFL starter. If he’s in, I like that streak to continue against my man-crush rookie QB Sam Bradford and the Rams.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-4.5): The Dolphins may easily be the most frustrating NFL team to watch (and bet on). This team somehow has managed a 7-6 record despite a terrible 1-5 mark at home. Why don’t they enjoy playing in Miami? Seems like the life to me. The Fins are the league’s second-worst scoring offense, averaging only 17 points per game. Maybe playing the Bills will spark some life into that offense.
Philadelphia Eagles (+3) at New York Giants: These teams seem pretty evenly matched to me. Both sport 9-4 records atop the NFC East. But the Eagles have already beaten the Giants 27-17 in November, and have won five straight in the series. Plus, the Giants are coming off a crazy week with traveling issues trying to get to Minneapolis, and eventually playing Monday night in Detroit. In a close game, I’ll take the points.
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4): The Bucs’ record against teams above .500 winning percetange: 0-5. Against teams below .500: 8-0. Detroit is 3-10. I’m smelling another win over another mediocre team.
Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) at Carolina Panthers: In this afternoon’s biggest snoozefest, I tried to pick against both teams. Apparently that’s not possible because I couldn’t find any odds on this being a tie. The Cards and the Panthers are perhaps two of the league’s worst teams, so I can’t be bothered to do any actual research for this game. When in doubt, I’ll pick against the team that has the most incentive to lose (and pick up the #1 draft pick) and take the points.
New Orleans Saints (+2.5) at Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens are coming off a short week after an epic collapse on Monday Night Football, only to be saved by an interception return for a TD in overtime in Houston. Without the extra day of rest, I think the Ravens defense still hasn’t caught their breath after playing 53 snaps after halftime in that game against the Texans. Saints in a minor upset.
Atlanta Falcons (-6) at Seattle Seahawks: You know what’s the most amazing thing about this game? The 11-2 Falcons and the 6-7 Seahawks are both in first place of their divisions. Atlanta needs to keep winning to secure a bye as well as homefield throughout the NFC playoffs, so they should clean up a mediocre Seattle team.
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-7.5): Denver has lost eight of their last nine games. That stretch includes a 59-14 home defeat at the hands of the Oakland Raiders. That 45-point winning margin only needs to be 8 in this one, and I don’t think Denver’s run defense (31st in the NFL at 150 yards allowed per game) has figured how to stop the Raiders yet.
New York Jets (+4.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers: Seems like we’re in for a brutal 10-7 slugfest. These teams play hard-nosed defense, and the offenses have struggled at times. The Jets have 9 points in their last two games combined, and the Steelers failed to score an offensive TD in their previous game against the lowly Bengals (they did have two defensive TDs). In a hard-fought close game, I’ll take the points.
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (-14): Who’s gonna stop these Pats? In their last five games, they have scored 39, 31, 45, 45, and 36 points. And now backup QB Matt Flynn will start for Green Bay in place of the concussed Aaron Rodgers. Can Flynn put up even 20 points against anybody? He’ll need that many to cover this spread. If I’m the Pats, my only worry is that these blowout wins could potentially draw too much attention with some comparisons thrown in to that ’07 Patriots team. And we know how what happened in Super Bowl XLII. (Wait, that’s exactly what I want to happen. Give them all the hype and pressure of 19-0 yet again!)
Chicago Bears (-7.5) at Minnesota Vikings: Like I said last week of the Jets-Pats game, the Bears horrific loss to the Pats told us more about how good New England is than how bad the Bears are. Chicago is still a very good team; the Pats are just on another level right now that makes good teams look bad. With that said, this week they won’t be facing Tom Brady, but instead some guy named Joe Webb. I literally just looked him up two seconds ago because I had never heard of him. Apparently he’s a rookie from University of Alabama-Birmingham drafted in the sixth round last year. Unfortunately he’s in for a rude awakening in his first NFL start as he plays in frigid Minneapolis outside, unable to find shelter in the friendly confines of the collapsed Metrodome. Bears roll on, and Brett Favre manages to dominate the highlights with some hilarious jokes on the sidelines.
NFL Picks: Week 14
Who else can’t believe that the NFL regular season has only four weeks left? The great thing about a sixteen game season, compared to NBA’s 82 or MLB’s 162 games, is that every week is so important. And with the labor talks looming for next season, and the owners demanding two extra games, I think we need to evaluate how effective the NFL is right now. Honestly, it’s perfect. The competition is balanced with free agency, revenue sharing, and salary caps. The divisions foster rivalries. Fewer games mean more anxiety, stress and excitement, week in and week out. What does two extra games get us? More money for the owners and more injuries for the players. Why tinker with the best business in sports at the expense of its most prized assets? Football is a very dangerous game (as seen by all the concussion/illegal hits to head talk this season) and we need to show better awareness of all the things these players sacrifice in terms of long-term health, even with their million-dollar contracts. With that, let’s get to the Week 14 slate of games. Last week: 9 wins – 7 losses. Season record: 100-87-5.
Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans: First look at this line, I thought it was a couple points too low. I know the Colts have struggled (1-4 in their last five) and Peyton Manning hasn’t look like, well, Peyton Manning. In Indy’s last three games, Manning has thrown 11 interceptions, four of which have been returned for defensive touchdowns. On the other hand, Tennessee isn’t playing much better, as they look to break a five-game losing streak on Thursday night. In any case, Peyton Manning in primetime game seems like a safer bet than a Titans team that averages only 292 yards gained per game, 30th in the NFL.
Cleveland Browns (+1) at Buffalo Bills: Anyone else realize the Browns are playing some of the best football in the NFL? The Browns have won four of their last six, including wins over New England and New Orleans. Plus, they were a Chansi Stuckey fumble away from winning against the Jets in overtime. Even without rookie QB Colt McCoy, who certainly has been a welcome surprise for this Browns team, the Browns should have no problem beating up on the lowly 2-10 Bills.
Green Bay Packers (-6.5) at Detroit Lions: The Lions haven’t beaten the Packers since September of 2005, losing ten straight matchups to their division rival. Detroit hasn’t won against any NFC North opponents in nineteen straight games. That’s over three years going winless in their division. Meanwhile, the Packers are contending for the NFC North title with the Bears or a potential Wild Card spot, so Green Bay has to win this one.
New York Giants (-3) at Minnesota Vikings: I’m not sure why, but I keep believing in the Giants. It finally paid off with a huge win over the Washington Redskins last week. Big Blue should continue to roll considering the Vikings will either start the erratic Tarvaris Jackson or the injured (and also erratic) Brett Favre at quarterback. Either way, the Giants’ defense will have a big day and lead the G-men to victory.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5): Reasons why Cincy should cover this high spread: the Bengals just played New Orleans tough in a close 34-30 loss, the Steelers are coming off a physical win over Baltimore, and taking control of the AFC North could lead to the classic “letdown game” after a crucial win. Why am I taking Pittsburgh? Cause Cincy is still terrible. Duh.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2) at Washington Redskins: The playoff hopes for the upstart Bucs took a serious hit with two straight losses at Baltimore and vs. Atlanta to drop Tampa to 7-5. But if there is one thing that Tampa can do, it’s beat mediocre and bad teams. The Bucs’ record against teams with sub-.500 records: 7-0. So what’s the record of this week opponent, Washington Redskins? Drumroll, please…5-7. So naturally, the Bucs are going to win.
Atlanta Falcons (-7) at Carolina Panthers: This line is several points too low. The 10-2 Falcons taking on the worst team in the league? Come on, this a double digits blowout, no question. The Panthers just lost by 17 to an average Seattle Seahawks team, extending their losing streak to six in a row. The Falcons have the best record in the NFC, but they need to keep winning to secure homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. Could get ugly as the Falcons steamroll the Panthers.
Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5): The Jags are in a surprising position of controlling the AFC South, and if they want to keep it that way, Sunday is another must-win. The Colts put pressure on the Jags to keep a one-game lead in their division, as Indy was victorious on Thursday night to move to 7-6. Right now, Jacksonville boasts a 7-5 record and they hold a tiebreaker over the Colts with a head-to-head win, but they meet again next week. Jacksonville will maintain that one-game lead for at least one more week with a good win over an inconsistent Oakland team.
St. Louis Rams (+9) at New Orleans Saints: Over the last few weeks, I’ve made public my love affair with the Rams and their fantastic rookie QB Sam Bradford. And I’m holding my ground even with a trip to the Superdome upcoming. The Saints should win this game, but I’m not counting out these Rams quite yet. Winners of two in a row, St. Louis might be prime for a huge upset, so I’m taking the points.
Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) at San Francisco 49ers: I was all set to pick San Francisco in this game, thinking that Seattle was about as bad a 6-6 team can get. But then Niners head coach Mike Singletary announced that Alex Smith would be starting at QB in place of Troy Smith. Why in the world would he do that? Troy Smith led this Niners team to three wins in his limited starting role, while Alex Smith only managed a single win in the season’s first two months. I don’t feel comfortable laying 5.5 points on a shaky QB and a four-win team.
New England Patriots (-3) at Chicago Bears: Seriously, this line is too low. Did anyone watch that Monday night game? The Patriots are, without question, the best team in the NFL right now. Sorry, Atlanta. Sorry, Pittsburgh. Sorry, New Orleans. You’re not even close. And a special apology goes to the New York Jets and the Chicago Bears. You may have thought you were good solid teams. But you can’t stack up to this Patriots offense.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-5.5): If any Jets fans are taken aback from last week’s blowout at the hands of the rival Pats, don’t get too crazy. That game didn’t expose the Jets. It exposed the Pats…as the NFL’s best team. As Dennis Green likes to say on those Bud Light commercials, they are who we thought they were. A playoff team, but not an elite team, yet. I’ve been high on the Jets, and I still am. They are good. Miami is not (see last week’s horrendous offensive performance against the Browns). Simple as that.
Denver Broncos (-4) at Arizona Cardinals: The Broncos got rid of their coach Josh McDaniels this week. So far this season, teams under interim head coaches (Minnesota and Dallas) are 5-1. For some reason, changes in the coaching leadership when things are going bad seems to really make a difference. I like the Broncos to step up and beat a not-so-good Arizona team that really struggles at the QB position. Denver can move the ball through the air (average of 271 passing yards per game), so at least they’ll put up some points. Can’t say as much for the Cardinals who average only 16.7 points per game.
Kansas City Chiefs (+9) at San Diego Chargers: Do-or-die game for the Chargers as they now sit two games behind the Chiefs in the AFC West, thanks to a terrible home loss to Oakland. (I tried calling this performance “un-clutch” but figured that wasn’t a real word. We need a word for this, if there isn’t already one. Help me out, people). If the Chiefs are a playoff-bound team, and I think they are, they will stomp on the Chargers to squash any sort of December comeback.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+3.5): No idea why I like the Cowboys in this one. Philly should win, right? I should pick them. Maybe I’m buying what Jason Garrett is selling as Dallas interim coach, leading his team to a 3-1 record under the new coach. Maybe I’m biased towards the Princeton grad (Jason Garrett is class of ’89). Maybe I like value in a slight home underdog. Maybe the Eagles are just due for a slip-up on the road. All those maybes add up to me picking the Cowboys, even if I think the Eagles are the better team.
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Houston Texans: Homer pick. How could I go against my Ravens in this one? They cannot, and will not, lose this game if they want to stay firmly locked into the playoffs. The wildcards in the AFC are going to be tough to lock up, with tremendous competition throughout the conference, but the Ravens are in the driver’s seat for that last playoff spot. Winning at Houston shouldn’t be a problem for a Baltimore team that looked like a playoff team, even in a loss, last week against Pittsburgh.